13th Nov, 2022. 09:05 am

Breaking the stalemate

Pakistani politics needs immediate lowering of temperatures, but no solution appears in sight to break the lingering impasse. As far as optics are concerned, the Shehbaz Sharif government seems in no mood to yield to the Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf’s (PTI) demand for calling an early election. The component parties of the ruling Pakistan Democratic Movement (PDM) are unanimous in their decision not to give early elections to the former prime minister, Imran Khan, who is riding high on an unprecedented popularity wave. The government camp has genuine fears that snap elections would bring Imran Khan back to power – this time around most likely with a two-third majority in the National Assembly.

But there is also awareness in the government ranks that the current situation of heightened tension is unsustainable. Yet, there are those in the ruling coalition who believe that they would be able to withstand Imran Khan’s onslaught and rough it out despite his long march and the blocking of roads here and there. Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif has given the message of a continued confrontation following his London huddle with elder brother Nawaz Sharif and other family members.

Against this backdrop, Imran Khan’s aggressive tone and tactics seem justified given the fact that he and his party have been grossly mistreated by the government in the recent days and weeks. The failed assassination attempt on him has darkened the political atmosphere further. With the PTI resuming its long march from the same place – Wazirabad, Punjab – where it was halted following the gun attack on Imran Khan, leaving him and at least a dozen of his other party comrades wounded and one supporter dead, there is a pressing need to find a solution to the deadlock on a war footing.

There is a growing realization within the state institutions, including superior judiciary and the armed forces that the crisis needs to be resolved amicably. Therefore, backchannel efforts have again gained momentum. But finding a solution and giving a face-saving to all the stakeholders is easier said then done in this atmosphere of heightened political tensions.

Interestingly, both the government and the PTI are trying that the Pakistan Army should move in their favour. The government wanted to use the Pakistan Army as a bulwark for itself against the rising tide of Imran Khan, while the PTI wanted the same institution to act in its favour by ensuring early elections.

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The Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz is also pressing the Pakistan Army to extend them a helping hand to reverse the life-long disqualification of Nawaz Sharif in a corruption case and arrange for his return to Pakistan so that he could lead his party’s election campaign. This is a strict no-no for the anti-Sharif camp which wants Pakistan’s electoral politics to move beyond dynastic politicians.

Caught between these conflicting demands, the Pakistan Army’s leadership will have to make some firm decisions in the days and weeks to come notwithstanding the institution’s new mantra of becoming apolitical and neutral. The institution is also aware of the massive public expectations which see the Pakistan Army as the last fallback in every crisis situation.

For a common Pakistani, the army needs to continue with its traditional role, which includes sticking to the anti-corruption narrative. When General Raheel Sharif was the Chief of Army Staff (COAS) he had pushed the campaign against corruption both within the institution as well as in the civilian sphere, which caught the imagination of the public at large.

General Qamar Javed Bajwa continued with this policy that saw Nawaz Sharif convicted for corruption and disqualified for life from holding public office. But unfortunately, during the last few months there appears to be a climb down on this front – at least in the public perception.

While the Pakistan Army should make efforts to correct this damaging perception, it has also to play a decisive role in bringing down the political temperature. Ideally General Bajwa should decide the matter before he retires from service. But if he could not do this due to paucity of time, it should be the number one item on the agenda of the new army chief.

The sensible course would be to install before the end of 2022, a caretaker government composed of honest technocrats who could lead the country towards fresh elections by April or May 2023.

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But doing this huge task in a small timeframe would be a challenge given the fact that the PTI has resumed its long march. Can the stalemate be broken before the PTI marchers reach Rawalpindi-Islamabad? And can the institutions convince Imran Khan to give them a few weeks in which the transition of leadership in the Pakistan Army gets completed? These are vital questions with no easy answers. The nation awaits with bated breath for the breaking of this knotty political stalemate.

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