Drones loom large in latest phase of Ethiopia’s war

ADDIS ABABA – One week ago, Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed used his Orthodox Christmas message to call for “national reconciliation”, raising hopes of a breakthrough to end his country’s grinding 14-month-old war.

But the very same day, a drone strike on a displaced persons camp in the conflict-stricken Tigray region killed more than 50 people, according to aid workers citing witness accounts.

Subsequent drone attacks on a flour mill and a church in the northernmost region of Ethiopia have left at least 21 others dead, doctors and local officials said.

The bombings highlight the central role that drone warfare has assumed in a conflict that, according to UN estimates, has already killed thousands of people and driven hundreds of thousands to the brink of starvation.

They have also renewed concerns over risks for civilians as Addis Ababa — which has not commented on its drone programme — appears eager to embrace aerial combat instead of sending ground troops into rebel-controlled Tigray.

Communications blackouts and access restrictions in conflict-hit areas make it difficult to confirm exactly which weapons are being used where, and how frequently.

Witness testimony can be unreliable, with the fog of war complicating efforts to distinguish between drones and other aircraft.

Yet analysts and diplomats say there is compelling evidence Ethiopia has acquired drones from multiple sources and is not shy about using them.

Post-strike imagery indicates Turkish, Chinese and Iranian drones have all been deployed in recent months, said Wim Zwijnenburg, a drones expert at Dutch peace organisation PAX who has tracked the fighting in Ethiopia.

“I think Ethiopia at the moment is indeed the heaviest user of drones on the continent,” Zwijnenburg said.

Ethiopia’s war broke out in November 2020 when Abiy sent troops into Tigray to topple the regional ruling party, the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF).

Abiy, the 2019 Nobel Peace Prize winner, said the move came in response to TPLF attacks on federal army camps, following months of mounting rancour between the two sides.

The seesaw struggle began with federal and allied forces taking over most of the region before being largely forced out by resurgent rebels last June.

The TPLF then launched an offensive into the neighbouring Afar and Amhara regions and in November came within roughly 200 kilometres (125 miles) of Addis Ababa, prompting hasty evacuations as countries including the US and France urged their citizens to get out.

But a government counter-offensive — featuring visits by Abiy himself to the conflict zone — has turned the tide yet again.

Last month the TPLF announced it had retreated into Tigray, and for now the army has mostly opted not to pursue the rebels on the ground.

The International Crisis Group has cited drone assets as a key element behind the government’s gains.

In addition to their strike capacity, drones provide a huge boon to military surveillance.

While the conflict-prevention organisation has said the current state of play offers a “chance for peace”, the TPLF claims persistent drone strikes make that unlikely.

“Drones continue to attack civilians and infrastructure,” TPLF spokesman Kindeya Gebrehiwot told AFP this week, accusing Abiy of wanting “to undermine any peace initiative”.

Abiy’s government has floated the idea of a “national dialogue” to ease tensions in Africa’s second-most-populous country.

However it is far from clear that the TPLF — officially branded a terrorist organisation — would be eligible to participate.

In the meantime Abiy’s supporters, and some critics, maintain the lethal use of drones is perfectly legitimate as fighting continues.

“The TPLF is preparing for an extensive offensive. They have said that,” said Eskinder Nega, an opposition politician who was jailed for more than a year before being freed last week in a prisoner release that also included TPLF officials.

“So the government could not just sit idly. It has to take pre-emptive measures.”

But Eskinder also stressed any strikes must be carried out “in such a way that civilians are not victimised.”

The latest strikes have failed to meet this standard, aid workers say, including the January 7 blast at the displaced persons camp that reportedly killed at least 59 people.

Footage purportedly from the area, provided by one aid worker, shows women wailing before covered bodies and crying out, “My son! My son!”

Civilian casualties from drone strikes undermine the argument that such weapons provide sufficient precision in combat zones, said Zwijnenburg of the Dutch group PAX.

“It goes to show that drones don’t necessarily spare civilian lives. It totally depends on who is pushing the button,” he said.

“They can be precise, but you have to know what you’re aiming at. A surgeon can precisely cut off the wrong leg.”

The issue seems destined to attract further international scrutiny as the war drags on.

US President Joe Biden voiced concern over air strikes in a phone conversation with Abiy on Monday, the White House said.

And in a statement this week, Amnesty International renewed its call for the government to grant access so such incidents can be independently investigated.