Kwasniewski discussed the possibility of conflict in Ukraine

• Alexander Kwasniewski, the former president of Poland (1995–2005), stated as much in an interview.
• Putin made a historic mistake, the price of which will be huge for Russia,” Kwasniewski emphasized.
• The former head of Poland claims that Russia and Ukraine may wage a protracted conflict.

Russia will pay a steep price for Vladimir Putin’s historic error in launching a full-scale war in Ukraine. However, a “conflict freeze” cannot be completely ruled out at some time in Russia’s war against Ukraine.

Alexander Kwasniewski, the former president of Poland (1995–2005), stated as much in an interview.

The former head of Poland reiterated that he never had any illusions that Putin intended to seize control of all of Ukraine, not just a third of it. According to Kwasniewski, Putin first discussed the reconstruction of Greater Russia with him in 2002. The former president observed that this goal is difficult to envision without Ukraine. He, therefore, realized in the years that followed that Russia had imposed political and economic pressure, used gas blackmail, and prevented the signature of the Ukraine-EU Association Agreement as a result of this.

“However, I sincerely admit: it seemed to me that Putin is a pragmatist so he would not attack Ukraine because that would look like madness. But he went for it anyway. Putin made a historic mistake, the price of which will be huge for Russia,” Kwasniewski emphasized.

The former head of Poland claims that Russia and Ukraine may wage a protracted conflict. On the one hand, Putin will continue to be aggressive, albeit with varying degrees of ferocity, since he does not want to lose the fight.

“On the other hand, Ukraine cannot surrender as Ukraine is now convinced of its rightness, it’s fighting for its land, for its rights, for the safety of its people. If the West is going to help, and it has pledged to do so, especially militarily, it should provide as many weapons as needed, and more. Taken this all into account, it means that the war could be long and exhausting,” Kwasniewski emphasized.

He said that he finds it challenging to envision a turning point in the conflict when both parties will be willing to make concessions and sit down to negotiate.

“I don’t believe that Putin is ready to make concessions and return to the pre-February 24 situations in conditions where Russia already has its presence in the south when he opened a corridor to Crimea and gained control over the Sea of ​​Azov and Mariupol. At the same time, I cannot imagine any Ukrainian politician who would start talking about any territorial concessions to Russia. Therefore, a peaceful solution to the problem is completely impossible today,” Kwasniewski noted.

Instead, which is not very encouraging news, he does not rule out a “conflict freeze at a certain moment.”

“But if both sides, especially the Russians, admit that they have exhausted their power and forces, and need time to recover, then some truce initiative may appear. Given the depletion of resources, forces and means, it can also be accepted by the Ukrainian side. But we know what a frozen conflict is. In such conditions, it is difficult to develop or have any far-reaching plans, because today the conflict is frozen, and tomorrow it could be unfrozen. Of all the scenarios, this one seems to be the most possible one,” the ex-president of Poland stated.

He reiterated that he sees no likelihood of a peace deal between Ukraine and Russia that would be supported by the major world powers as of right now.

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