Turkey's Bid to Revive the Black Sea Grain Deal

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan is set to meet with Russian President Vladimir Putin on Monday, aiming to persuade Putin to rejoin the Black Sea grain agreement that Moscow terminated in July.

The meeting will occur in Sochi, located on Russia’s southern coast, following weeks of speculation regarding the timing and location of their meeting. Earlier, Erdogan had mentioned that Putin would visit Turkey in August.

Approximately six weeks ago, the Kremlin declined to renew the grain agreement, which had been negotiated by the United Nations and Turkey in July 2022. This agreement had facilitated the safe export of nearly 33 million tonnes of grain and other commodities from three Ukrainian ports despite the Russian invasion.

Russia’s withdrawal from the agreement was based on claims that a separate deal aimed at removing obstacles to Russian food and fertilizer exports had not been honored. Russia also voiced concerns about shipping and insurance restrictions that it felt hindered its agricultural trade, even though it had been shipping record quantities of wheat since the previous year.

Why is Turkey a broker?

Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan held a meeting with Russian Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu in Moscow on Friday. Fidan emphasized during a briefing in the Russian capital on Thursday that the revival of the deal holds significant global importance.

Both Ukraine and Russia play crucial roles as major suppliers of wheat, barley, sunflower oil, and various essential goods for developing nations.

Throughout the 18-month conflict in Ukraine, President Erdogan has maintained close diplomatic ties with President Putin. Turkey, in contrast to Western nations, has refrained from imposing sanctions on Russia following its invasion of Ukraine, positioning itself as a primary trading partner and a logistical hub for Russia’s international trade operations.

It’s important to note that Turkey, as a NATO member, has also shown support for Ukraine by providing military assistance, engaging with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, and endorsing Kyiv’s aspirations to join the NATO alliance.

What are Russia’s demands?

The Sochi summit comes after discussions between the Russian and Turkish foreign ministers on Thursday, during which Russia presented a list of conditions that the Western nations would need to fulfill for Ukraine’s Black Sea exports to resume.

On Friday, US wheat prices saw an increase, driven by Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov’s statement that Moscow had not observed any indications that it would receive the necessary assurances to reinstate the grain deal.

President Erdogan has expressed understanding for President Putin’s stance. He stated in July that Putin had “certain expectations from Western countries” regarding the deal and stressed the importance of these countries taking action in this regard.

UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres recently sent Lavrov “specific proposals” aimed at facilitating Russian exports to global markets and enabling the resumption of the Black Sea initiative. However, Lavrov indicated that Moscow was not satisfied with the contents of the letter.

Turkish Foreign Minister Fidan described Turkey’s “intensive” efforts to revive the agreement as a “process aimed at gaining a better understanding of Russia’s position and demands and finding ways to fulfill them.”

Turkey’s Bid to Revive the Black Sea Grain Deal

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