Climate’s ‘Catch-22’: Reducing pollution heats up planet

• Climate’s Catch-22 reducing pollution heats up the planet.
• Air pollution acts as a shield against the full impact of the sun’s rays.
• It is imperative to intensify efforts to reduce emissions of greenhouse gases.

Air pollution, a worldwide menace responsible for millions of annual deaths, is acting as a shield against the full impact of the sun’s rays.

Eliminating this pollution would exacerbate climate change, and this challenging conclusion has been drawn by a group of prominent climate scientists who have examined the results of China’s decade-long and highly effective “war on pollution.”

China’s extensive efforts to combat pollution, primarily driven by the reduction of sulfur dioxide (SO2) emissions from coal plants, have resulted in a nearly 90% decrease in SO2 emissions, leading to a significant reduction in premature deaths, as supported by Chinese official data and health studies.

However, the removal of this pollutant, which scatters and reflects solar radiation, has led to a rise in China’s average temperatures of 0.7 degrees Celsius since 2014, resulting in more intense heatwaves, as evidenced by a review of meteorological data and input from the interviewed scientists by Reuters.

This situation presents a complex dilemma, as Patricia Quinn, an atmospheric chemist at the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), describes it: “It’s this Catch-22. We want to clean up our air for air quality purposes, but, by doing that, we’re increasing warming.”

The phenomenon of removing air pollution’s protective effect, referred to as “unmasking” by scientists, has possibly had a greater impact on temperatures in certain industrial Chinese cities over the last decade than the warming caused by greenhouse gases.

The scientists also warn that other heavily polluted regions globally, such as India and the Middle East, would experience similar temperature increases if they followed China’s lead in reducing SO2 emissions and the associated aerosols.

Paulo Artaxo, an environmental physicist and lead author of the IPCC’s recent report on short-lived climate pollutants, underscores the significance of aerosols in masking a substantial portion of the planet’s warming: “Aerosols are masking one-third of the heating of the planet. If you implement technologies to reduce air pollution, this will accelerate – very significantly – global warming in the short term.”

The Chinese and Indian environmental ministries did not immediately respond to inquiries regarding the effects of pollution unmasking.

The relationship between the reduction of sulfur dioxide and global warming was previously highlighted by the IPCC in a 2021 report, suggesting that, without the solar shield of SO2 pollution, the global average temperature would already have increased by 1.6 degrees Celsius above preindustrial levels, surpassing the 1.5-degree Celsius limit considered critical for avoiding irreversible and catastrophic climate changes.

The scientists emphasize that it is imperative to intensify efforts to reduce emissions of greenhouse gases, particularly methane, to counteract the consequences of pollution unmasking in the short term.

In contrast, reducing air pollution is a vital priority to mitigate the immediate dangers it poses to public health.

China initiated a comprehensive “war on pollution” in response to President Xi Jinping’s commitment to addressing environmental issues, which resulted in substantial reductions in SO2 emissions and a rise in temperatures. This has raised concerns about potential climate impacts.

The effects of pollution unmasking are most pronounced in developing nations, as more developed regions like the U.S. and Europe have already addressed their air quality issues. As India and other regions improve air quality, they are also likely to experience the unmasking effect.

Experts are exploring strategies to counteract the associated warming in response to this phenomenon. One proposal is “solar radiation management,” involving the deliberate injection of sulfur aerosols into the atmosphere to cool temperatures.

However, there are concerns about unintended consequences of this approach. A more widely accepted solution is to reduce methane emissions, as methane has a shorter atmospheric lifetime and can produce more rapid results in temperature reduction compared to carbon dioxide.

The world could offset the warming effect resulting from reduced pollution, potentially preventing catastrophic consequences and staying within the 1.5-degree Celsius target for limiting global warming by focusing on mitigating methane emissions.

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