Global defense leaders meet in Singapore amid rising China-US tensions

• Marcos will open the conference with a keynote address on Friday.
• China conducted massive military drills around Taiwan, simulating a blockade of the island.
• The US, without formal diplomatic ties with Taiwan, is obligated by its laws to provide the island with the means to defend itself.

Government leaders, defense officials, and diplomats from around the world are gathering in Singapore this weekend for Asia’s premier security forum, amid rising tensions and increasing competition for influence between the US and China in the Indo-Pacific region.

In recent years, Beijing has rapidly expanded its navy and become increasingly assertive in pressing its claim to virtually the entire South China Sea. This has led to many direct conflicts with other countries in the region, most notably the Philippines and Vietnam.

Meanwhile, the US has ramped up military exercises in the region with its allies to underscore its “free and open Indo-Pacific” concept, emphasizing freedom of navigation through the contested waters, including the Taiwan Strait. China, which also claims the democratic, self-governing island of Taiwan, has stated it would not rule out using force to take it.

Since territorial hostilities with China surged last year in the South China Sea, Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr.’s administration has forged new security alliances with several Asian and Western countries, allowing a greater US military presence in more Philippine bases under a 2014 defense pact.

On Friday, Marcos will open this year’s Shangri-La Dialogue, hosted by the International Institute for Strategic Studies, with a keynote address.

This week, Marcos expressed concerns over a new Chinese law that allows its coast guard to seize foreign ships “illegally entering China’s territorial waters” and detain foreign crews for up to 60 days. The same law also references 2021 legislation permitting China’s coast guard to fire upon foreign ships if necessary.

Eugene Tan, a professor of international law at the Singapore Management University, expressed concerns that regular confrontations between Philippine ships and the Chinese could escalate into a low-level confrontation.

“I don’t think these countries are looking to go to war with each other, but the concern with these skirmishes is that sometimes when you have a miscalculation, then things could rapidly deteriorate into the use of force,” he said.

“And I think the last thing that countries in the region would want, particularly as they focus on the post-pandemic recovery, would be to have a regional conflict at the doorstep.”

Just a week before this year’s conference, China conducted massive military drills around Taiwan, simulating a blockade of the island. This occurred after Taiwan inaugurated a new government that rejected Beijing’s insistence that the island was part of China. China regards Taiwan as a renegade province that it must bring under its control, by force if necessary.

Similar to most countries, the US lacks formal diplomatic ties with Taiwan but is obligated by its laws to provide the island with the means to defend itself. The US labeled China’s military exercises as “reckless.”

Bilateral contact between the American and Chinese militaries broke down in 2022 after then-US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan infuriated Beijing. However, contact has slowly been re-established in recent months. US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin and Chinese Defense Minister Dong Jun, who are attending the Shangri-La dialogue, were expected to meet on Friday even before the forum begins.

It will mark the first face-to-face meeting between the two since direct talks broke down, although they have previously spoken by phone. Tan expressed skepticism about any breakthroughs from the talks but emphasized the importance of direct contact between the two to “reduce the temperature” between the countries.

“We would probably be expecting too much of the Shangri-La dialogue to expect any sort of concrete moves forward,” he said. “The Shangri-La dialogue is providing the opportunity for very incremental steps in trust and confidence building.”

Austin is scheduled to address the forum on Saturday morning, while Dong is scheduled to speak on Sunday, the final day.

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