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On Wednesday, Thailand’s Constitutional Court ordered the dissolution of the popular anti-establishment opposition party, Move Forward, due to its controversial campaign to amend a law that protects the powerful monarchy from criticism.
The disbandment of the 2023 election winner marks the latest setback for Thailand’s major political parties, which are still caught in a tumultuous two-decade struggle for power with a powerful nexus of conservatives, old money families, and royalist generals.
The decision comes six months after the same court ordered Move Forward to abandon its plan to reform law on royal insults, ruling that it was unconstitutional and could undermine Thailand’s system of governance with the king as head of state. Move Forward denies this claim.
Although the dissolution is likely to anger millions of young and urban voters who supported Move Forward and its progressive agenda, the ruling’s impact is expected to be limited. Only the party’s 11 current and former executives are banned from politics for 10 years.
This means that 143 of its lawmakers will retain their seats and are expected to reorganize under a new party, as they did in 2020 when their predecessor, Future Forward, was disbanded over a campaign funding violation.
If all join the same party, it would become the largest in parliament and is expected to continue a progressive agenda, including military reform and breaking up big business monopolies—policies that led its rivals to unite against it forming a government last year.
The decision comes at a critical juncture in Thai politics, with cracks also appearing in the uneasy truce between the royalist establishment and another longtime rival, the populist ruling party, Pheu Thai. Next week, the Constitutional Court will decide on a case brought by 40 conservative former senators seeking to remove Prime Minister Srettha Thavisin over his appointment of a lawyer who has served time in jail. Thavisin denies any wrongdoing and asserts that the appointment was above board.
Tycoon Srettha’s case is contributing to heightened political uncertainty and unsettling financial markets, with the potential for political upheaval if he is removed.
A new premier would need to be voted on by parliament, which could pit Pheu Thai against its coalition partners, potentially causing a shakeup in the governing alliance and leading to a realignment of the cabinet and policies.
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