Sri Lankans prepare for first Presidential election since economic collapse

• The economic crisis led to a popular uprising that forced former President Gotabaya Rajapaksa from power.
• Despite the austerity measures, Wickremesinghe’s popularity has not increased.
• The presidential system allows nearly 17 million of the country’s 22 million citizens to vote.

Sri Lanka is set to hold its presidential election on Saturday, a pivotal vote that will determine the future of the South Asian nation as it works to recover from the 2022 financial collapse. The economic crisis triggered a popular uprising that ultimately forced former President Gotabaya Rajapaksa from power.

In the two years since the country’s worst crisis and Rajapaksa’s departure, current President Ranil Wickremesinghe has successfully implemented policy reforms to secure a bailout from the International Monetary Fund.

Although the austerity measures President Ranil Wickremesinghe introduced — including tax hikes — alleviated shortages of essentials like food, fuel, and medicine, they failed to boost his popularity. Despite this, the 75-year-old Wickremesinghe will be a key contender in the upcoming election, running as an independent candidate.

A six-time prime minister and part of the old guard that many Sri Lankans hold responsible for the 2022 crisis, Wickremesinghe will face over 30 candidates in the election. Among his competitors are Anura Kumara Dissanayake, 55, leader of the Marxist-led coalition National People’s Power, and Sajith Premadasa, 57, Wickremesinghe’s former deputy and leader of the largest opposition party, the United People’s Power.

“The election is significant because there is a degree of ideological polarization that we have never seen in a Sri Lankan election, at least since pre-independence really, (since) 1947,” Dr. Dayan Jayatilleka, academic and Sri Lanka’s former envoy to the UN, told Arab News.

Elections in Sri Lanka have traditionally been contested between coalitions of center-right and center-left parties. However, the upcoming vote will feature competition from a broader political spectrum.

“The sitting president is a right-wing conservative, Mr. Ranil Wickremesinghe. And the main challenger is the leader of the opposition, Mr. Sajid Premadasa, who has repeatedly called himself a social democrat,” Jayatilleka said.

“He’s a moderate progressive of a centrist nature, running against a sitting right-wing president, on the one hand, and a former revolutionary, still Marxist-Leninist, Anura Kumara Dissanayake … on the other. This is very, very new for Sri Lanka.”

The fourth main contender is Namal Rajapaksa, the 38-year-old heir to the Rajapaksa family legacy and son of Mahinda Rajapaksa, who served multiple terms as Sri Lanka’s president and prime minister and is Gotabaya’s brother.

“Namal Rajapaksa is running for the presidency now, but he’s a serious contender for the presidency next time, in five years,” Jayatilleka said.

“This is a trial run … It’s aimed to retain the vote base of the Rajapaksas and their party, the Sri Lanka Podujana Peramuna (Sri Lanka People’s Front) and prevent that vote from going with certain ministers of their party, who have defected to the side of President Wickremesinghe.”

Sri Lanka operates under a presidential system, where the president leads the government and has the authority to appoint or dismiss the prime minister and other ministers. Nearly 17 million of the country’s 22 million citizens are eligible to vote on Saturday, allowing them to choose up to three candidates from the ballot.

Officials will first count the initial preferences, and the candidate who secures more than 50 percent of the valid votes will win. If no candidate achieves a clear majority, the top two contenders will remain, and the ballot papers will be reviewed again to identify if either was marked as a second or third preference. These additional votes will be added to the two candidates’ totals, and the one with the highest count will be declared the winner.

Although the economy is the central issue in the election, Dr. B.A. Husseinmiya, a Sri Lankan historian and former professor at the University of Brunei Darussalam, emphasized the need for change due to widespread public disillusionment with mainstream politicians. The mass protests in 2022, which led to the resignation of then-president Rajapaksa and his Prime Minister Brother, sparked the rise of the leftist National People’s Power.

“It’s a most historic occasion when an underdog like the NPP emerges so fast, which is (the result of) all the mistakes the past regimes have made,” Husseinmiya told the news.

“I think people everywhere are coming to believe that change is very important if you want to move forward.”

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