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In his latest foreign policy move, Prime Imran Khan paid a visit to Moscow to discuss economic ties with Russian President Vladimir Putin, on February 24. The meeting occourred as Russian troops were advancing into Ukraine, instigating what many are calling a historic military conflict. Following the visit the United States urged Pakistan to condemn the Russian advance into Ukraine, however, the nation has chosen to remain neutral on the issue. Earlier, following the US withdrawal from Afghanistan, Pakistan chose to speak with the newly established Taliban government in order to meet its foreign policy goal of maintaining peace in the region – another move that was very disliked by the US, a long-term ally. Despite this Pakistan stood firm on its stance, and showed willingness to cooperate with its neighbour. These incidences exhibit a Pakistan that has shifted away from its customary pro-US stance. With this new order in place, Bol News asks foreign policy experts and analysts if it is possible for Pakistan to remain neutral in international conflicts and put forward a balanced foreign policy, and if does so, what are the possible repercussion?

Dr Muhammad Mushtaq Ahmad

Former Director-General Shariah Academy, IIUI

n international relations, states do not have principles, they have interests. There are three kinds of interest that we generally discuss in the context of international relations common interests, conflicting interests and complementary interests. When there are conflicting interests, states are poles apart and there are 180 degrees of disagreements and states cannot go together. States very rarely have common interests but generally, we look for complimentary interests. Interests of one state go along with the interests of another state even if they are not one and the same from each and every aspect, So, they form alliances.

It is this third kind of interest that Pakistan should try finding out for itself with Russia. One of the reasons why Pakistan is looking to do so is not only the disappointment of Pakistan from the Western bloc in the aftermath of the War on Terror and the US withdrawal from Afghanistan. But also, there is this fact that the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor has become one of the most important policy considerations for us.

Keeping in view these complementary interests with China and Russia, there is no harm in trying to go closer to them.
Conversely, there is a serious threat of being blacklisted by the Financial Action Task Force (FATF), which has already placed Pakistan on its grey-list. Similarly, we recently had a difficult kind of settlement with IMF. These tools are of course available to the US and its allies.

Pakistan has a tightrope to walk and it must strike a balance between these two different kinds of pressures. As far as the Ukraine crisis is concerned, Pakistan or any other state should not condemn only one side. Now when the US and its allies are declaring Russia as the aggressor, I wonder how they can expect the international community to ignore their own conduct when they invaded Afghanistan and Iraq, or when they declared a Global War on Terror.

Ijaz Khan

Columnist, Masters in European Studies

he PM’s recent visit to Russia has been a source of heated debate by analysts both in and outside of Pakistan. However, I think that while many view the PM’s presence in Moscow on the very day of the Russian attack on Ukraine as Pakistan’s tilt towards Russia, but imagine the optics of the postponement of the scheduled visit.

I believe Pakistan has embarked on a new journey to devise an independent foreign policy which is free of any external influence as is targeted at meeting the nation’s own economic and security goals. PM Imran Khan had already emphasized the fact that Pakistan wants to develop trade relations with all the countries, even before the visit to Moscow took place. However, this brings its own challenges as, in today’s world, the significance of an economic war has grown stronger than that of a military war.

So in my opinion Islamabad must also convince the European Union (EU), the country’s second-largest trading partner which has granted Generalised Special Scheme of Preferences+ (GSP+) status to Pakistan, to continue to allow it access to EU markets and the removal of tariffs on most of the EU tariff-lines, as the agreement will come to an end in December 2023.

I feel it will take time for Pakistan to portray a lasting image as a neutral country on the global political landscape through demonstrated effort. I believe that Pakistan wants to get out of the use-and-misuse of its strategic importance by the superpowers, as this has left the country’s own economy very weak.

This will be hard to achieve as the country has always been dragged into allyship with the US in international conflicts, particularly the conflict in Afghanistan. However, Imran Khan has made it clear that Pakistan will no longer be a part of a bloc.

Dr Murad Ali

Chairman Department of Political Science at University of Malakand

n my view, there are two main reasons for the EU and the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation (NATO) wanting Pakistan to take their side instead of remaining neutral or joining the Russian camp. The first is that Pakistan has always remained a Western ally, be it in the Cold War or in the post-cold war years. As a result, Pakistan has benefited from foreign aid, investment trade and technology from the West.

The second factor is that the neutrality that Pakistan refers to is seen by the West as becoming a Russian ally.
I believe that Pakistan has taken a wise stance by remaining neutral in the conflict, as the country is trying to diversify its foreign relations. It wishes to expand its trade and economic relations to Russia and Central Asian states. In its new National Security Policy, Pakistan has categorically mentioned that it doesn’t believe in bloc politics, that it will remain neutral and will look at its own interests. However, the West operates under the assumption that whoever is not on their side is against them.

This is an aggressive and colonial mentality that forces weaker states to obey Eurocentric demands in all circumstances.
As such I feel that Pakistan has taken a wise stance and should remain neutral. It is important that Russia and the West should solve their issues on their own. If you look at it from a neutral perspective, of course Russia is the aggressor against Ukraine, but it is important that the genuine security concerns of Russia be addressed.

The West had earlier given verbal assurances that NATO expansion will not occour, however they have almost reached Russian borders over the past two and a half decades.

Even former US diplomat George F Kennan conceded that the NATO expansion is an injustice and it will rouse Russian nationalistic aspirations.

Farzana Ali

Senior Journalist

n my view, it’s really difficult for any country, especially for an economically stricken country like Pakistan to stay neutral and independent in scenarios like the current Russia-Ukraine conflict. Decisions against the wishes of the international community are only possible for countries that have a strong economy, but for Pakistan, which is already under the clutches of the International Monitory Fund (IMF), making such hard decisions is an invitation for more problems.

As we already know, Prime Minister Imran Khan had to make some hard decisions last week against the agreement with the IMF in order to save his political position and it is well understood that going against the IMF, and the powers behind it, is not possible for the country.

I for one would favour supporting our regional powers. We have Iran, China and Russia and even though our eastern neighbour India is seen as an enemy, they are all-powerful countries. Similarly, Central Asian Republics are also emerging powers in this region and I think it is not wise to ignore them.
I think it was a wise decision for PM Imran Khan to go ahead with his already planned visit to Russia and thankfully he did not say anything that may invite trouble for us. It was really wise of him to keep his commitment to visiting Russia. I have always been in favour of having better ties with Russia and China, however, going along with them doesn’t mean going against the US.

I believe Pakistan will keep a balance in its relations with the US and regional powers. It is important for us that we prioritise our interests instead of becoming part of any bloc.