Hungary’s Orban faces united opposition in a tight vote

Hungary’s Orban faces united opposition in a tight vote

Hungary’s Orban faces united opposition in a tight vote
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Hungarians will vote in a general election on Sunday, following a tense campaign overshadowed by Russia’s invasion of neighbouring Ukraine, with polls favouring incumbent nationalist Prime Minister Viktor Orban.

However, Orban’s Fidesz party will confront a united opposition alliance for the first time in its 12 years in power.

According to Bulcsu Hunyadi, an analyst with the independent Political Capital institute, Fidesz’s poll advantage is tiny and “all possibilities are on the table.”

According to Hunyadi, the “mobilisation in the last few days” would be critical in mobilising the projected half a million undecided voters in the country of 9.7 million.

On Friday, Orban, 58, will hold his final rally in Szekesfehervar, a town less than an hour from Budapest, while his opposition coalition competitor Peter Marki-Zay will have his final event in the city on Saturday, only a few hours before voting begins the next morning.

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Orban would almost certainly take use of the chance to emphasise that he symbolises “peace and security” in contrast to the “dangerous” opposition — phrases that echo Fidesz’s massive election posters.

 

– Propaganda –

Orban’s administration has refused to let arms for Ukraine pass its border, reducing the conflict to “one very simple question: whether Hungary should be involved or remain out,” according to Hunyadi.

“This message has been far more powerful than the opposition’s criticism of the government’s ties to Russia,” he says.

Furthermore, “Fidesz’s propaganda infrastructure is significantly more successful than the opposition’s capacity to contact voters,” according to the report.

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Other critics point out that during Fidesz’s tenure in government, election changes benefited the party as well.

Such concerns are dismissed by the administration.

“It’s a completely fair playing field,” Zoltan Kovacs, a government spokeswoman, told AFP.

Marki-Zay, on the other hand, is a “figurehead with no party” and no MPs, according to Kovacs.

Marki-Zay rose to fame after beating Fidesz to become mayor of Hodmezovasarhely, but he now has the difficult challenge of heading a coalition of parties ranging from Jobbik to liberals, environmentalists, and social democrats.

They’re unified in their desire to depose Orban and dismantle Fidesz’s “illiberal” democratic model, which has resulted in several run-ins with Brussels since 2010.

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According to Marki-Zay, 49, the decision before Hungarians has “never been more straightforward.”

He said the country must choose the “European, not the Eastern” course, a reference to the government’s warming relations with Moscow and Beijing.

 

– International ‘isolation’ –

Orban’s administration has also retaliated against Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, who chastised Orban for his strong links to Russian President Vladimir Putin.

In response, the Hungarian government has accused Ukraine of seeking to sway the election on Sunday.

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Hungary’s neutral posture on the war has put it at odds with even longtime allies like Poland, which has taken a strong anti-Russian stance.

When it comes to protecting Hungary, however, “if the price is isolation… then the PM is willing to go for it,” according to Kovacs.

While Kovacs said he “respected” Poland’s belief that Russian gas supplies might be phased out by the end of the year, he emphasised that there was no practical way for Hungary to become less reliant on them.

He portrays Orban as a seasoned “doyen of European politics” who can brag about Hungary’s “economic and social triumph” during the previous 12 years.

The opposition, on the other hand, claims that Fidesz’s “irresponsible” economic management has left Hungary ill-equipped to fight soaring inflation and the repercussions of the forint’s weakening versus the euro.

During the campaign, the administration promised to restrict energy costs and provide other financial incentives to voters.

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While these measures were intended to be Fidesz’s “secret weapon,” Andras Biro-Nagy, an analyst at Policy Solutions Institute, told reporters this week that “the problem… is that inflation is eating it up.”

The election will coincide with a vote on LGBT issues, following accusations that a law approved last year was homophobic.

For the first time, the polling will be overseen by a team of more than 200 foreign observers who will assess the vote’s fairness (or lack thereof).

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