5th Generation Warfare: The Balochistan Question

Cyber-attacks and defence should eventually be incorporated into Pakistan’s national security framework

It did not take hundreds of years for 1st Generation Warfare to evolve after the development of the musket. In the 100 years between Waterloo and Verdun, 2nd Generation Warfare evolved and peaked. In less than 25 years, 3rd Generation Warfare reached maturity. 4th Generation Warfare was first implemented upon its conception in China 75 years ago, around the same time that 3rd Generation Warfare was being implemented in Europe. The continuous shift of political and social loyalties to “causes” rather than nations resulted in 5th Generation Warfare. It will be distinguished by the rise of smaller entities and the explosion of biotechnology. 5G networks will disseminate critical information, provide a source for equipment and material, and constitute a field from which to recruit volunteers; jets will allow for the weapons to be distributed globally, cheaply, and effectively.

World powers have always meddled in Balochistan because of its geostrategic and geoeconomic importance. Foreign involvement has resulted in insurgencies, suicide attacks, bomb blasts, and attacks on the province’s security forces. Balochistan is currently subjected to fifth-generation warfare. Pakistan’s adversaries are attempting to destabilise the province through the use of technological and covert proxies. Sponsoring insurgencies, abetting terrorism, sabotaging development projects, and publishing false and misleading media reports in order to influence locals’ minds and incite them against its own state and institutions.

Balochistan is significant in geoeconomic terms because the province is endowed with vast reserves of oil, gas, and precious minerals such as gold, copper, chromite, coal, and so on. The China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) is poised to be a game changer for Pakistan, particularly Balochistan. The beginning of the development of the Gwadar port will increase its importance even further. Gwadar has the potential to become a New Silk Road node, connecting two landlocked Central Asian republics to China.

Balochistan’s militancy has distinct dynamics, with tribal and subnationalist overtones. Because of the province’s resource potential and the geostrategic significance of its future trade routes, foreign players are causing instability in the region. Some European countries pretend that the Balochistan Liberation Army (BLA) and other militant groups from Balochistan are “political opposition groups,” but India is the country most involved in these activities. Kulbushan Jadhav, a hybrid war operator with the Indian intelligence agency RAW, admitted after his capture in 2016 that he was tasked with funding proxies and carrying out terrorist attacks in Balochistan and Sindh, proving that the Indo-American Hybrid War on CPEC is more than just a “conspiracy theory,” but a “conspiracy fact.”

It is no secret that India is fueling the insurgency in Balochistan. Baloch militant leaders have admitted receiving Indian assistance on numerous occasions. It has been revealed that the representatives of the Balochistan Liberation Organization (BLO), the Balochistan Liberation Army (BLA), and the Balochistan Liberation Front (BLF), among others, have been living in India since 2009 and have been singing to Indian tunes. Pakistan has accused India, with proof, of using its consulates in Kandahar and Jalalabad against Pakistan to fund, train, and arm Baloch militants under the watchful eye of US occupation forces during the Karzai and Ghani administrations.

Pakistan routinely handed over dossiers to the United Nations (UN) documenting nefarious Indian plans to undermine and destabilise Pakistan and divert global attention away from the atrocities being committed against helpless Kashmiris in Indian Illegally Occupied Jammu and Kashmir (IIOJK). These dossiers revealed how India’s intelligence agencies used Afghan territory to provide training, funds, and a safe haven for terrorists in the ex-FATA region and Balochistan. The majority of ethnic and sectarian strife, as well as its funding, can often be traced back to India.

The use of Iranian territory by Indian intelligence agencies against Pakistan has been a source of serious concern for Pakistan, particularly since the arrest of Commander Jadav. Kulbushan Jadav possessed an Iranian passport and was involved in spying and sabotage against Pakistan. He was pursuing Indian-proposed objectives to destabilise Balochistan. Baloch insurgent leaders support the Indian Prime Minister’s stance on Balochistan, adding to the evidence of Indian involvement in the region. DG ISPR briefed on the capture of Indian spy agent Kulbushan Jadav in March 2016, stating that his goal was to sabotage CPEC, with Gwadar port as the primary target. He insisted that “this is nothing short of state-sponsored terrorism. There can be no clearer evidence of Indian interference in Pakistan.”

In the era of hybrid warfare, media campaigns against Pakistan are in full swing. The media campaigns attempt to portray Balochistan as poor and underdeveloped. Foreign involvement in the province has, in fact, hampered development progress. Foreign-sponsored militant groups in the province have been a major impediment to the province’s development and stability. The Indian state has attempted to portray Balochistan as a deprived and neglected part of Pakistani society in order to incite its people against its own state and institutions. India is using bogus social media accounts and websites to convince the world that Balochistan has been kept in poverty by its own state, thereby promoting a false image of the province. A media campaign against Pakistan, including television, newspapers, print publications, social media, films, dramas, and radio, is part of its “Cry Wolf” strategy to undermine Pakistan and sweep under the rug its own horrendously questionable human rights record. For its Balochi radio service, it has already launched a multimedia website and app. The radio stations broadcast it in Balochi, airing statements by senior officials of the Indian intelligence agency RAW in order to galvanise the Balochi community to oppose Pakistan.

India is one of the world’s most active social media users. In India, approximately 206 million people use social media, compared to 40.4 million in Pakistan. These users systematically influence Pakistan’s social media by sharing thousands of fake photos, videos, and print commentary about Balochistan and other parts of Pakistan. India is using its media and collaborating lobbying groups around the world to malign, destabilise, and damage Pakistan’s image in the eyes of the global community by creating and propagating false and fake news via an extensive network of 750 fake media outlets and 550 websites operating in 162 countries (The News, 2020). In 2005, the Indian intelligence agency set up a phoney front entity, Srivastava Group (SG), with headquarters in New Delhi. For the past fifteen years, this group has been in charge of the propaganda network. The group’s main goal is to spread false news about Pakistan using fake reports, which is highlighted by ANI, India’s leading news agency.

Furthermore, in 2019, an extensive network of NGOs and think tanks was exposed for assisting over 200 fake news outlets run by an Indian network in influencing the European Union (EU) and the UN with anti-Pakistan content. A European non-governmental organisation (NGO) exposed a network of 265 fake news sites operated by India in November 2019. According to the report, every year during United Nations Human Rights Council (UNHRC) sessions, various obscure groups coordinate demonstrations and social media campaigns against Pakistan. In cahoots with the Americans, India is trying to sabotage the CPEC by spreading false reports about it and targeting it with militant attacks. Moreover, the Chinese $62 billion CPEC investment has irritated the Indians, who have been attempting to sabotage CPEC since its inception, targeting it through a militant group sponsored by the Indian government.

The way forward is to adapt, match the guile of the adversary, and counter the narrative being peddled by the opposition in a way that sends a loud and clear message that Pakistan is a responsible global player and that its status as a pivot state is not to be taken lightly. The exercise is rigorous and consistent, but Pakistan is up for it. To better equip children from an early age, cyber security education should begin in the classroom.

With hyperactive social media in Pakistan, it is critical to research the internet’s potential and limitations. It is crucial that academics attempt to better understand the internet landscape in Pakistan. Cyber-attacks and defence should eventually be incorporated into Pakistan’s national security framework. The civilian and military establishments, in collaboration with the private sector, must develop a robust and ever-evolving cyber threat management mechanism that can aid in countering both local and international threats.

The writer is a renowned Defense and Security Analyst