Ominous times for the security landscape

Pakistan may be going through severe political turmoil, lingering default and a nose-diving exchange rate, but perhaps its greatest existential threat is the ominous scourge of terrorism. The Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) has called off a truce agreement with the government and has now ordered its fighters to carry out nationwide attacks. These are alarming signs, given that Pakistan despite facing serious economic and political challenges did manage to cap the incidence of terrorism, albeit in pockets in mainstream provinces. This sudden announcement could squander all the efforts that were made previously.

The decision is predicated upon the claim that military operations are taking place against the group across the country. This includes operations by the Pakistani security forces against the TTP in districts such as Lakki Marwat in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. Furthermore, the group constantly references the term ‘Mujahideen’ to evoke sentiments within segments of the Pakistani population that the struggle of the TTP is that of freedom against oppressors which are threatening the message of Islam. This perversion of religion to achieve political objectives is just one of many tools that the TTP will use to promote its propaganda warfare. After all, modern day warfare constitutes a combination of information, dissemination tactics and weaponry.

The group is also citing how the negotiation process has been sabotaged by the intelligence agencies in an attempt to discredit the Pakistan Army. It is a known fact that such narratives are mere fallacies as the Pakistan Army is involved in multiple operations against terrorist groups which range in scope ranging from the BRAS or Baloch Raaji Aajoi Sangar in Balochistan to the Sindhudesh Revolutionary Army (SRA) in Sindh. Such claims denigrate the importance placed by Pakistan to negotiate with the Afghan Taliban to try and ensure that their Pakistani branch is curbed in scope and operations. All of these efforts however, have failed.

The truth is that group is once again demanding a rigid imposition of Islamic Sharia law which has nothing to do with the essence of religion, but is being used as a strategy to advance the TTP’s political objectives. With the ascendancy of the Taliban government in Kabul in 2021, the TTP has objectives to overthrow the civilian government and rule Pakistan akin to the regime in Afghanistan. As the Pakistani branch of the Taliban, anything short of victory is considered to be morally deflating for a group which has remained under the radar for a year.

A statistical analysis of the casualties which have taken place in Pakistan point at how the surge in extortionist activities by the TTP has resulted in opposition from the population in districts such as Swat. Attacks were largely muted with the exception of October 2022 where according to the Pakistan Institute for Peace Studies (PIPS), 65 attacks of a retaliatory nature took place in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa with at least 98 deaths and 75 injuries. Barring this surge in October, attacks against Chinese workers, academics and professionals over the past three years have been carried out by BRAS and affiliated Baloch terrorist organisations who cite grievances over CPEC’s disproportionate favouritism to the Punjabi elite at the expense of Baloch rights, resources and land routes. The only exception has been the November 16, 2022, attack on a police patrol in Lakki Marwat which resulted in six casualties. That too, fits into the current narrative of the TTP to launch attacks nationwide against the Pakistani state. Otherwise, the group has been largely missing from current trends where credit must be given to the security forces for clamping down on their activities.

Hence, such renewed calls will be beyond the usual playbook for which greater vigilance from the Pakistan armed forces would be needed. The group made its declaration hours after State Minister for Foreign Affairs, Hina Rabbani Khar, paid a visit to Kabul to hold talks on regional security with the Afghan Taliban government. As per security specialist, Asfandyar Mir, from the United States Institute of Peace, the TTP has avoided targeting tribal areas regardless of an escalation of violence. Perhaps, the TTP views tribal districts as an important breeding ground for potential recruits, should arrangements with the federal government worsen. So far, the need has been to ensure that tribal support is kept intact while negotiating demands with the Pakistani government. As Mir rightly points out, all eyes will be on the Taliban government in Afghanistan on their response if the TTP carries out nationwide attacks.

The option exists for multiple round of talks brokered by the Taliban in Afghanistan between the Pakistani government and the TTP, but that was last held in June 2022. The entire negotiation process took place weeks after the Taliban took control of Kabul amid a haphazard withdrawal of the US forces from Afghanistan. While there may be a desire for peace between all stakeholders, the truth is that continuous attacks launched against the security forces are unacceptable and may result in unease among advocate for dialogue and deliberations. The TTP has been incredibly toxic in its modus operandi with the heinous, egregious attack in 2014 on school children in Peshawar, still lingering fresh in the nations’ collective conscious.

The TTP’s declaration, therefore, bodes ill for Pakistan’s security landscape and a prompt response from all stakeholders is needed. Further damage to the state, its population, its critical infrastructure and its economic potential is something this country cannot afford.

The writer is an Assistant Research Associate at IPRI