Real challenges await OIC

Pakistan will be hosting the 48th Council of Foreign Ministers (CFM) of the Organization of Islamic Cooperation (OIC) in Islamabad from 22-23 March 2022. This session will coincide with the 75th-anniversary celebrations of Pakistan’s independence. While Palestine and Kashmir have remained a permanent agenda item on the Organization’s agenda, issues of Islamophobia, terrorism, the situation in Bosnia, Yemen, Libya, and millions of our Afghan brethren remain at the mercy of international aid and confront an uncertain future at the hands of hunger and disease. The deleterious impact of the Covid-19 pandemic is yet to be fully contained.

The proposed theme of the 48th Session, “Partnering for Unity, Justice and Development”, is a clarion call not only for the Muslim world, but the entire humanity facing discrimination. While Pakistan may seek to build ‘partnerships’ across the Islamic world and build bridges of cooperation to address the Ummah’s challenges; there is also a need to look at the emerging geopolitical paradigm at the regional level. Special attention has to be paid to the regions suffering from perennial tensions in the Muslim world, such as the Middle East.

Being held under the shadows of the Ukraine crisis in which the world is once again pushed to the renewed Cold War, the OIC meeting will have the opportunity to look at the emerging threats to the world and options the Islamic world can avail to put across its point of view effectively.

The OIC meeting assumes importance because of severe sanctions imposed on Russia by the U.S and EU countries. The most affected sector under these sanctions is energy; Russia is the world’s top exporter of crude and oil products combined, producing about 7 million barrels per day (bpd), or 7 percent of global supply. In addition to being a major supplier of oil and gas, Russia is also the world’s largest grains and fertilizers exporter and a top producer of palladium, nickel, coal and steel. The bid to exclude its economy from the trading system will hit a wide range of industries and add to global food security fears.

Many Islamic countries are endowed with vast energy resources and may have windfall profits due to sanctions on Russia. Still, a paradigm shift in the majority of the countries in the world is expected, including the Muslim countries. During the recent voting in the UN General Assembly, out of 57 OIC member-states, 25 either abstained, absented, or cast a negative vote. However, most of the OIC membership went along with the resolution, which showed the Western world’s influence over those Islamic countries.

The forthcoming CFM should afford a rare opportunity to the member states to formulate a common position about the world challenges. It would also be a rare occasion to draw lessons from the partisan attitude of the West towards whites and the people of colour. While the Ukrainians have been welcomed in Europe as normal citizens, those Asians escaping Ukraine faced discrimination and slurs at the Polish and Romanian borders without refugee status.

The OIC countries have the realization that no country has supported the Russian attack on Ukraine. Still, the attitude of the U.S and EU is equally reprehensible in instigating Ukraine to provoke a violent response from Russia. Behind the Russian attack lies the severe Russian complaints against the American and European attitude of pushing the envelope while expanding NATO well beyond the western threat perception. None of the Russian troops are stationed beyond the Russian borders; hence Russia cannot cross the Rubicon knot.

The Islamic countries will have to look at the emerging Cold War situation from twin agenda points; first dealing with peace, security and stability in the Muslim countries, and second, how to refrain from block-politics to secure their interests. Indeed, the situation is not ideal. for any of the Islamic countries. Apart from external interference in the name of “Arab Spring”, which caused disasters for Tunisia, Libya, Egypt, Iraq and Syria, the Islamic countries have been grappling with tensions within their ranks, such as the Saudi-Iranian tussle in the region.

The entire Islamic world will sooner be facing a stark choice of either supporting the U.S-led global order or the one which defies its dictates. After the end of the Cold War, Francis Fukuyama’s book “The End of History and the Last Man” gave a sweeping statement that humankind had “reached the end-point of post-war history and the universalization of Western liberal democracy as the final form of human government”. It did not happen as predicted by Fukuyama.

As against democracy, China’s rise based on “meritocracy” set a new paradigm as through one-party democracy, based on merit, it lifted over 800 million out of poverty—a marvel which the best of the democracies could only dream about. Not only that, following the western capitalist economic model, China has overtaken all the economies of the world, causing discomfort in the U.S.

To counter the rise of China and assertion by Russia to secure its borders, the U.S-led Western order, through their military-industrial complex (MIC), may push the world into block-politics. Just look at the post-9/11 scenario, where Islamic countries have been on the receiving end. Over one million Muslims were killed in Afghanistan, Iraq, Libya, and Syria under the U.S watch, and approximately two million became refugees in various continents. Naturally, the emerging order would directly impact the Islamic world, which spans over a vast geographical expanse connecting Europe, Africa and Asia. Individually, Islamic countries could be pressurized to join the American-led world.

Alternatively, however, the OIC has a choice to emerge as a neutral block to assert its identity and emerge as a formidable alliance with friendly relations with both the blocks. The OIC can decide on peace and security issues on merit. Moreover, a neutral OIC can also play the role of a mediator between the blocks. Given the divisions within the Islamic Ummah’s ranks, a unified neutral stance over the renewed cold war may sound premature. Still, the gathering storm on the international horizon would soon force the countries to adopt a unified stance for their individual and regional interests.

The writer is a former ambassador of Pakistan to Iran and UAE