Miami Heat Vs. New York Knicks match preview: picks and predictions for Friday

The New York Knicks return to action after the All-Star break tonight when they host the Miami Heat at Madison Square Garden. It’s the Knicks’ first game since blowing a 28-point first-half lead against the Brooklyn Nets last Wednesday in a 111-106 loss at Madison Square Garden.

Miami returns to action for the first time since a thrilling 111-107 double overtime victory over the Charlotte Hornets on Feb. 17.

Here are my predictions for the spread, over/under, and who will win this Eastern Conference showdown. For the most up-to-date prices, visit the Tipico Sportsbook website.

This figure appears to be a little low to me. The Heat are clearly the better and healthier team, as New York’s RJ Barrett is still out with an ankle injury. It was also recently announced that Knicks guard Kemba Walker will sit out the rest of the season to prepare for next season due to disagreements over playing time and being constantly shuffled in and out of the starting lineup.

Miami has also been on a roll away from FTX Arena, winning five straight and going 5-0-1 against the spread (ATS) in its last six games as a road favourite. The Knicks are also 1-6 as underdogs in their last seven games and have only covered the spread once in their last eight overall.

The Heat are the far superior team, with a 19-13-1 ATS record on the road this season. Don’t be afraid to take them in this spot, as they have a chance to win by double digits against this depleted New York squad.

Over/Under: Under 210.5 (-107)

Unlike the spread, this total is difficult to predict. For good reason, it currently has the lowest over/under on Friday’s slate by five points. These are two of the league’s lowest scoring teams. The Heat are 16th in the NBA, averaging 108.9 points per game, while the Knicks are fourth worst, averaging 105.1 points per game.

The Heat won their only meeting nearly a month ago, a low-scoring 110-96 victory in Miami. The under is 5-2 in the Heat’s last seven games, including four of their last five on the road.

While going under such a low number is a risky bet, both teams have proven on multiple occasions, including earlier this season against one another, that it is possible to go under 210.5. In the last 26 meetings in New York, the total has also gone under 19 times. Take the under because I wouldn’t be surprised if the line drops even lower closer to kickoff.

Moneyline: Heat -200

It’s impossible not to take the Heat here. Miami is tied for the top seed in the East, while the Knicks are rapidly fading from contention for a spot in the play-in tournament. The Heat and the Philadelphia 76ers have the most road wins in the conference.

Miami is 7-2 ATS in its last nine meetings with New York, and 4-1 ATS in its last five games at MSG.

If the -200 is too much for you, I’m willing to take Miami up to -9.5 at +200 because I believe the Knicks will struggle to keep up with one of the best teams in the NBA.

Expect the Heat to continue their hot streak, while the Knicks will fall further down the Eastern Conference standings.

Prediction: Heat 108, Knicks 96