Putin now needs more than Xi Jinping’s assistance

• World is watching the Winter Olympics.
• Chinese President Xi Jinping welcomed Russian President Vladimir Putin.
• He arrived in Beijing at the beginning of February..

With the world watching the Winter Olympics, Chinese President Xi Jinping welcomed Russian President Vladimir Putin when he arrived in Beijing at the beginning of February.

Three weeks before to Putin sending his tanks into Ukraine, the two leaders met and bragged about their strong bonds while railing against NATO expansion.

One thing is clearly obvious: seven months in, the invasion has gone anything but according to plan. It is unknown if the subject of war came up during their meetings.

Since the beginning of the war, when his men were defeated in Kyiv and forced to flee, Putin has just experienced what is arguably his worst week.

Another embarrassing defeat for Putin as he watches as his invasion fails and his circle of allies on the international stage shrinks is the recent recapture by Ukraine of more than 3,000 square kilometers (more than 1,100 square miles) of territory in the northeast of the country. This is more territory than Russia has captured in all operations since April.

Putin is receiving increasing criticism from his own supporters in Russia, and he could really use a victory. Fortunately for Putin, he will have the chance to do so on Thursday when he meets Xi in person for the first time since the invasion began, outside of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) summit in Uzbekistan.

The friendship between Russia and China, which has only grown stronger since the war’s start, is frequently discussed. Putin, according to experts, would likely depend on Beijing more than ever following his military losses.

Despite the severe Western sanctions, “Russia depends on China to show the world that their close relationship is a sign of failing international isolation,” said Velina Tchakarova, head of the Austrian Institute for European and Security Policy in Vienna.

Support from the most potent anti-West nation in the world would obviously be of great value to Putin at a time when the West’s determination against Russia appears to be hardening and as more countries join NATO and offer help to Ukraine the longer the war persists.

“China’s support helps Moscow spread Russian narratives, such as blaming NATO for the start of the war and EU sanctions for the food crisis. Discontent with the US-led West and the compelling argument for deeper connections to China become a shared denominator, according to Tchakarova.

Recently, Russia has emphasized China’s assistance. Li Zhanshu, the head of China’s legislature, met with the State Duma chairman and other Russian MPs in Moscow last week.

We see that the United States and its NATO allies are enlarging their presence near the Russian borders, seriously endangering national security and the lives of Russian citizens, Li said. China understands and supports Russia on issues that represent its vital interests, particularly the situation in Ukraine.

The Chinese summary of the meeting did not include these quotations, which begs the question of how formally China is prepared to support Russia given that its invasion of Ukraine shows no signs of abating.

In an ideal environment, Kerry Brown, professor of Chinese studies at King’s College London, said, “China would prefer a stable Putin leadership over anything else.” China obviously doesn’t want Russia to disintegrate.

But he continued, “Ukraine will be an unwanted problem that Beijing would prefer see disappear. Of doubt, China distrusts the West and NATO, but it does not imply that it is Russia’s closest ally. Since China is ultimately self-interested, the volatility doesn’t directly benefit China.

Self-interested analysis of China’s past support for Russia may provide some insight into Beijing’s current thinking, particularly in the run-up to the major political gathering in Beijing next month, where Xi is widely anticipated to win a third term in office and solidify his position as China’s most powerful leader in decades.

Despite the war, trade between the two nations increased for the first half of 2022. Only last week did China agree to stop paying for Russian gas in dollars and start doing it in yuan and rubles, circumventing many of the restrictions put in place on Russian energy exports.

China has an interest in providing this economic support as well as blaming NATO and the West for the conflict.

Gains gained by Ukraine over the weekend, global sanctions, export restrictions, and strategic blunders from Moscow have all demonstrated that Russia may have a problem with military supplies. According to a US official who spoke to CNN last week, Putin is currently purchasing from North Korea millions of rockets and artillery shells.

According to Joseph Dempsey, research associate at the International Institute for Strategic Studies, “it does not suggest that supplies are necessarily close to exhaustion, but could be crossing the line into contingency stores for a bigger and/or future battle.” Even if the fighting ended right now, it might take many years to make up for what has been lost in Ukraine.

Even if China’s money is appreciated in Moscow, the longer the battle continues, the more urgently Russia may need money. Export restrictions make it more difficult to import weapons and the materials needed to build them. There are also a limited amount of vendors for the kind of equipment that Russia requires. If China refuses to help, Russia’s alternatives are much more limited.

Dempsey thinks that Russia may get desperate, which might lead to even another issue.

“Of course, a bigger worry about military shipments to Russia is what a desperate Russia could be willing to deliver in exchange, especially in the case of Iran and North Korea, the latter of which is still subject to a broad UN arms embargo,” the article continues.

What therefore may Putin anticipate announcing following his meeting with Xi? There will undoubtedly be other economic pledges, and China is unlikely to abruptly soften its stance against the West.

However, the truth for Putin is that Xi can only do so much to resist the Western sanctions against Russia. And the man who once thought his fight would be ended in a few days must be concerned about this after a week of significant losses on the battlefield.

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