• Many crucial races in the US midterm elections haven’t been called hours.
• Control of the US Senate in particular is still very much up for grabs.
• Republicans have had a passable night but by no means a brilliant one.

Many crucial races in the US midterm elections haven’t been called hours after the first polls closed, and control of the US Senate in particular is still very much up for grabs.

Republicans have had a passable night but by no means a brilliant one. Their expectations of a tidal wave that would carry them to victory in numerous toss-up races have not yet come true.

To regain control of the Senate, they will need to flip two seats among the three states of Nevada, Arizona, and Georgia after already losing one in Pennsylvania.

Here are the main conclusions so far:

1. Republicans are likely to take back the House

Republicans seem to be headed for a majority in the House of Representatives despite Democrats winning some close races. The size of the majority is the matter at hand.

Republicans were surprisingly close to a majority in 2020 thanks to their impressive performance. Additionally, they had an edge going into these elections thanks to the redistricting of some congressional districts in conservative states.

Republicans will be able to shut down the Democratic legislative agenda and step up probes into the Biden administration with any kind of majority. In any case, that is a victory.

Republicans will need to demonstrate extraordinary tactical and strategic competence to keep their party together on crucial votes, though, if the margin is close.

2. Republican Ron DeSantis gets re-elected in Florida

Florida Governor Ron DeSantis defeated Democrat Andrew Gillum by a tiny percentage point in the last election. He has been re-elected with a sizable margin after serving as the head of the conservative movement for four years during which time he has leaned into contentious cultural issues like transgender rights and “critical race theory,” railed against coronavirus pandemic restrictions, and established himself as a regular on conservative news outlets.

It is particularly amazing how he achieved it.

He suffered a 20% loss in Miami-Dade county, a stronghold for Democrats, in 2018. He is expected to become the first Republican candidate for governor since Jeb Bush in 2002 to triumph in a region with a significant Hispanic population this year. He might even succeed by double digits.

Republican candidates have benefited greatly from Mr. DeSantis’ decision to redraw the state’s district lines in their favor; as a result, his party has gained at least two of the five seats necessary to take control of the House of Representatives.

If the Florida governor decides to run for president, these accomplishments will go a long way toward giving him a platform to do so.

At Mr. DeSantis’s victory rally on Tuesday night, the crowd yelled “two more years” as if to emphasize this, indicating that they understood that if their candidate decided to run for president, he would have to quit as governor halfway through his four-year tenure.

The most prominent Republican citizen of Mr. DeSantis’ state, former President Donald Trump, may be required to help him win the Republican presidential nomination in 2024.

3. Trump’s night was mixed

Even though his name wasn’t on the ballots, Donald Trump nevertheless had an impact. In a brief speech earlier that day from his Mar-a-Lago residence, the former president declared a resounding victory for his backed candidates.

However, the reality is more nuanced. His nominees have performed poorly in the most notable races where he supported them over more traditional Republican candidates. In Pennsylvania, Mehmet Oz came in last for the Senate. Georgia’s Herschel Walker appeared to be headed for a run-off. In Arizona, Blake Masters is falling behind. Only JD Vance in Ohio managed to win decisively, albeit by a smaller margin than the state’s rising conservatism would indicate.

After Tuesday night, Republicans will be questioning his political judgment. And if he does make another run for the presidency next week, he will do it from a disadvantageous position.

4. Democratic celebrities’ dismay

Although Beto O’Rourke in Texas and Stacey Abrams in Georgia lost their statewide elections in 2018, the closeness of their losses helped them win over Democrats. Many on the left looked to them as the party’s future due to their capacity to generate millions of dollars in campaign financing and develop an effective grass roots organization.

When they both decided to run for politics in their home states again this year, supporters believed they could conquer the figurative mountain. Both failed to deliver.

Four years ago, Ms. Abrams nearly lost to Republican Brian Kemp; this time, she will come in well behind him. Compared to Senator Ted Cruz, Mr. O’Rourke lost to Republican Governor Greg Abbott by a wider margin.

Democrats will need to look for fresh talent.

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