• PP falls short of absolute majority; Sanchez has a chance to stay in power.
• JxCat, Puigdemont’s party, holds key to Sanchez’s investiture vote.
• Puigdemont faces arrest warrant after election results.

In Sunday’s inconclusive snap election in Spain, most pollsters predicted the far-right Vox to play a significant role. However, what surprised everyone was the emergence of exiled Catalan separatist leader Carles Puigdemont as the kingmaker. Despite the right-wing Popular Party (PP) demanding the right to rule due to winning the vote, forming an absolute majority seems unlikely, even with the support of Vox.

This situation presents an opportunity for Socialist Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez to retain power if he gains the backing of various Basque and Catalan independence parties that were instrumental in supporting his outgoing minority government. However, securing the agreement of JxCat, a hardline separatist party led by Puigdemont, becomes crucial, as their seven lawmakers hold the key to Sanchez passing any parliamentary investiture vote.

The irony of being a kingmaker was not lost on Carles Puigdemont, who had sought refuge in Belgium to evade prosecution for his involvement in the failed 2017 independence bid, which triggered Spain’s worst crisis in decades. Puigdemont expressed his thoughts on Twitter in English, highlighting the paradox of his situation: “One day you are decisive in order to form a Spanish government, the next day Spain orders your arrest.”

Shortly after the election results were announced, Spain issued a fresh arrest warrant for Puigdemont, further complicating the political landscape. The situation remains uncertain as negotiations and alliances are likely to play a significant role in determining the future government and stability of Spain.

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