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Taiwan Unveils Submarine to Deter China

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Taiwan Unveils Submarine to Deter China

Taiwan Unveils Submarine to Deter China

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  • Taiwan launched its first domestically-produced submarine, named “Haikun,” to bolster defense capabilities.
  • President Tsai Ing-wen presides over the launch ceremony in Kaohsiung.
  • The $1.54 billion diesel-electric submarine aims to be operational by the end of 2024.
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Taiwan has introduced its inaugural domestically-produced submarine as part of its efforts to strengthen its defense capabilities amid concerns about a potential Chinese offensive.

President Tsai Ing-wen presided over the launch event in the port city of Kaohsiung on Thursday.

US officials have cautioned that China might have the military capacity to initiate an invasion in the coming years.

Taiwan is an independently governed island, but China views it as a rebellious province that it aims to reclaim in the future.

While most experts believe an immediate attack on Taiwan by China is unlikely, Beijing has stated its desire for a peaceful “reunification” with Taiwan while simultaneously cautioning against any formal declaration of independence by Taiwan and discouraging foreign support.

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China has also escalated its pressure on the island through a series of military exercises in the Taiwan Strait, including several conducted this month.

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“History will forever remember this day,” said Ms. Tsai as she stood in front of the towering submarine draped in the emblem of Taiwan’s flag.

She added that the idea of a domestically-made submarine had previously been considered “an impossible task… but we did it”.

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Developing indigenous submarines has long been a significant priority for Taiwan’s leadership, but this initiative gained momentum under President Tsai’s administration, which substantially increased military spending, nearly doubling its budget during her tenure.

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The diesel-electric powered submarine, valued at $1.54 billion (£1.27 billion), will undergo a series of tests and is scheduled to be handed over to the navy by the conclusion of 2024, according to military authorities. It has been named “Haikun” after a legendary gigantic fish capable of flying, a figure found in classical Chinese literature.

Another submarine is presently in the production phase, and Taiwan’s objective is to eventually operate a fleet of 10 submarines, including two older Dutch-made vessels, all of which will be equipped with missiles.

Admiral Huang Shu-Kuang, who oversees the domestic submarine program, recently informed reporters that the primary aim is to deter any potential attempts by China to encircle Taiwan for an invasion or impose a naval blockade.

He also mentioned that this capability would buy time until US and Japanese forces could come to Taiwan’s aid in defense.

In response to questions from reporters about the submarine on Thursday, a spokesperson for the Chinese defense ministry dismissed the endeavor as “nonsensical” and opposed any interference with their military activities in the Pacific.

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“No amount of weapons [Taiwan’s ruling] Democratic Progressive Party buys or makes can stop reunification with the motherland,” he added.

In a piece published earlier this week, state media outlet Global Times said Taiwan was “daydreaming” and the plan was “just an illusion”.

It also claimed China’s military “has already constructed a multidimensional anti-submarine network all around the island”.

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Experts concur that the new submarines could significantly enhance Taiwan’s defense capabilities.

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Taiwan’s planned fleet of 10 submarines would be dwarfed by China’s extensive submarine fleet, which is reported to consist of more than 60 vessels, including nuclear-powered attack submarines, with additional units under construction.

Nonetheless, Taiwan has long pursued an asymmetric warfare strategy, aiming to develop a more agile defense force capable of countering a larger and well-equipped adversary.

These submarines could play a crucial role in enabling Taiwan’s relatively modest navy to proactively engage China’s formidable navy. They would do so by employing stealth, lethality, and the element of surprise, effectively engaging in guerrilla-style warfare tactics.

In particular, these submarines could be instrumental in safeguarding the various straits and passages connecting the “first island chain,” a network of islands that includes Taiwan, the Philippines, and Japan. This chain is considered a potential front line in any conflict with China.

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Anti-submarine warfare remains the Chinese navy’s “weakest part, and this is the chance for Taiwan to exploit it”, he added.

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The primary battleground for a naval conflict between China and Taiwan would probably not be in the deep waters off the east coast of the island, where submarines would be most advantageous.

This observation comes from Drew Thompson, a visiting senior research fellow at the National University of Singapore and former US Department of Defense official.

Instead, the main theater of operations would likely be in the shallower waters on the west coast of Taiwan facing mainland China.

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“The submarine is not optimized for a counter-invasion role… having this increased capability to complicate China’s military operations would have an effect, but it’s not a decisive one,” he said.

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The effectiveness of these submarines will be heavily contingent on how Taiwan decides to deploy them.

In addition to serving as a deterrent, they possess the capability to carry out various strategic operations, including ambushing Chinese ships, conducting mine-laying operations in Chinese ports, disrupting maritime oil supplies, and targeting key facilities along the Chinese coastline.

These insights are shared by Chieh Chung, a defense researcher affiliated with the Taiwanese think tank National Policy Foundation.

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What’s even more significant is that Taiwan has successfully designed and constructed its submarine.

The Haikun submarine is equipped with a combat system from the US defense company Lockheed Martin and will carry US-manufactured torpedoes. While it’s unsurprising given that the US is Taiwan’s primary ally, at least six other nations, including the UK, offered their assistance to Taiwan by providing components, technology, and expertise, as reported by Reuters.

Admiral Huang, in an interview with Nikkei Asia, mentioned that he reached out to military contacts in the US, Japan, South Korea, and India for assistance, although he didn’t specify which country ultimately agreed to help.

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The fact that several countries and companies were “not afraid to supply parts to a marquee defense program in Taiwan… indicates a significant geopolitical shift”, noted Mr. Thompson.

It is an indicator of the “doubt and dissatisfaction” with Beijing felt by some members of the international community, and “should cause China to feel disquiet”, added Mr. Chieh.

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The launch comes a day after Beijing confirmed it had been conducting military drills this month to “resolutely combat the arrogance of Taiwan independence separatist forces”.

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In recent weeks, China has intensified its deployment of warships in the Taiwan Strait and increased military jet incursions into the airspace surrounding Taiwan.

Various US military and intelligence officials have offered differing timelines regarding the potential for a Chinese invasion of Taiwan.

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One recent estimate suggests 2027 as a possible timeline, with Chinese President Xi Jinping reportedly instructing the military to be operationally prepared for an invasion by that year.

However, it’s important to note that CIA director William Burns has indicated that this operational readiness does not necessarily imply that President Xi will decide to launch an invasion in 2027.

There are doubts about China’s prospects for success in such an endeavor, which may influence President Xi’s decision-making in this regard.

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