• Russian Duma initiated a process of ending the nuclear test ban treaty.
• Russia might go further and would keep the US guessing about its intentions.
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• The Ukraine conflict has escalated tensions between Russia and the US.

Russia’s parliament has initiated the process to revoke its ratification of the Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty (CTBT) and may consider abandoning the pact altogether.

The State Duma, Russia’s lower house of parliament, voted overwhelmingly, with 412 in favor and none against, in the first of three readings to approve the withdrawal of the treaty’s ratification.

The move is seen as a response to the United States, which signed but never ratified the CTBT. Russia insists it will not resume nuclear testing unless the United States does so.

It has stated that it will remain a signatory to the CTBT and continue to provide data to the global monitoring system that alerts the world to any nuclear tests while Russia is revoking its ratification.

Parliament speaker Vyacheslav Volodin, a member of Putin’s Security Council, suggested that Russia might go further and would keep the United States guessing about its intentions.

He characterized Russia’s move as a response to the “rudeness” of the United States’ failure to ratify the CTBT for the past 23 years.

Arms control experts are concerned that Russia’s actions could lead to a resumption of nuclear testing, sending a threatening signal to the West amid heightened tensions over Russia’s war in Ukraine. Russia has said it would not disclose whether a test is needed or not.

If Russia, the United States, or China were to resume nuclear tests, it could trigger a new nuclear arms race among major powers who halted nuclear testing after the collapse of the USSR in 1991.

Andrey Baklitskiy, a senior researcher at the United Nations Institute for Disarmament Research, sees Russia’s deratification of the CTBT as a “slippery slope” towards resuming testing.

He pointed out that President Putin previously stated that Russia must be prepared to conduct a test if the United States did so.

The Ukraine conflict has escalated tensions between Russia and the United States to levels not seen since the 1962 Cuban Missile Crisis, while China aims to strengthen its nuclear arsenal in line with its status as an emerging superpower.

The history of nuclear bomb testing during the Cold War highlights the dangers of nuclear brinkmanship and the potential for catastrophic consequences, including the long-lasting contamination of the planet for many scientists and activists.

According to the United Nations, since the CTBT was adopted in 1996, 10 nuclear tests have occurred, with India conducting two in 1998, Pakistan conducting two in the same year, and North Korea conducting tests in 2006, 2009, 2013, twice in 2016, and in 2017.

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