• PMD predicts normal to above-normal rainfall for the upcoming monsoon season.
• A positive Indian Ocean Dipole is forecasted throughout the season.
• The temperature outlook indicates nearly normal daytime maximum temperatures.

The Pakistan Meteorological Department (PMD) has released its forecast for the upcoming monsoon season, anticipating normal to above-normal rainfall and nearly normal temperatures across Pakistan.

The synoptic situation indicates that climate indicators like the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) will likely remain in a neutral phase, with a potential shift towards the negative phase (La Niña) towards the end of the season. Concurrently, the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is expected to stay positive throughout the season.

Here is a summary of the climatic forecast for Pakistan:

Rainfall Outlook: Most parts of the country can expect normal to above-normal rainfall, with the highest departure in upper Punjab and lower Sindh. Northern Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Gilgit Baltistan are likely to experience nearly normal rainfall, while Balochistan may receive slightly above-normal rainfall.

Temperature Outlook: Daytime maximum temperatures are forecasted to be nearly normal nationwide, except for warmer than normal conditions in northern Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Gilgit-Baltistan. Nighttime temperatures are expected to be above normal, especially in northern Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Gilgit-Baltistan, and southwestern Balochistan.

Impacts and Advisories: High temperatures in certain regions may accelerate snowmelt, potentially increasing river flow. Farmers are advised to manage irrigation efficiently due to the anticipated rise in temperatures before the monsoon onset. While initial temperatures may be higher than normal, expected rains towards the end of the season will help normalize conditions.

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The season may also bring strong winds, dust storms, and gusts, with potential hydro-meteorological events leading to riverine floods and flash or urban flooding in specific areas due to heavy rainfall events.

The PMD’s forecast provides valuable insights for individuals, farmers, and authorities to prepare and manage the potential impacts of the upcoming monsoon season effectively.