The overall performance of the agriculture sector will continue to remain below par in 2023

LAHORE: The overall performance of the agriculture sector will continue to remain below par even if there is no climatic intervention like floods, heatwaves or pre-monsoon rains during 2023.

In case of any climate change effect, it will be tough for the country, already facing a huge current account deficit, to feed its 220 million population.

Last year, floods hit the agriculture sector hard by damaging standing crops and delaying sowing of wheat in the country, in general, and in Sindh, in particular. The area under wheat cultivation has decreased considerably, which means less produce even under favourable circumstances.

Pakistan will need to import wheat and the required quantity will increase in case of any natural disaster. The country needs to produce at least 30 million tonnes of wheat, increasing rice yield from the existing six million tonnes to eight million tonnes to enhance exports and revive cotton crop to boost the textile sector.

Last year, the prices of most of the crops remained stable except cotton and sugarcane. Wheat, spring maize and cotton suffered due to the climate change, while mustard, rice and autumn maize achieved good production.

Experts suggested taking a timely decision to import wheat and ensuring availability of certified seeds, fertilisers and pesticides and keeping the prices of diesel and electricity in the reach of the growers through targeted subsidies.

For some, a delay in the drainage of stagnant floodwater has led to a drop in area under wheat cultivation. Moreover, high input costs and less profitability in the wake of a delay in increasing the wheat support price also forced the growers to look for alternative options such as maize, potato and mustard for better returns.

Some experts believe the support price is just a short-term solution, which is not helping the cause of ensuring food security in the country. For them, the only way forward is to focus on the economic side of the crops. Instead of increasing the area under cultivation, they say, there is a need to enable the farmers to enhance yield through the use of quality inputs and the adoption of better farming practices. Increasing yield to the actual potential is the only way forward for an agrarian country like Pakistan.

Punjab’s average wheat yield is 2,768kg/hectare, far below than its actual potential of 9,687kg/hectare. Even progressive farmers are getting 4,942kg/hectare, which is far below than the world’s average yield of 8,995kg/hectare.

Punjab’s average yield of cotton, sugarcane, rice and maize is 2,135, 61,875, 4,690 and 6,138kg/hectare, respectively, compared with the actual potential of 6,919, 177,916, 9,884 and 11,861kg/hectare, respectively.

The progressive farmers are getting 4,448kg/hectare cotton, 108,726kg/hectare sugarcane, 8,599kg/hectare of rice and 7,907kg/hectare of maize.

The world’s best average yield of cotton, sugarcane, rice and maize is 5,436, 123,157, 10,181 and 9,766kg/hectare, respectively, which is two to three times more than the average yield in Punjab. Even the progressive farmers are not catching up with the world’s best yield for these major crops.

The experts believe the farmers could get more yield than the world’s best average by using technology and adopting best farming practices with the help of the government. The technology adoption can increase productivity to the level, which can be elevated to the world’s best by focusing on research.

Through diversification and investment in the value-added sectors, Pakistan can increase its exports of fruits, vegetables and processed food items, the experts said.

Aamer Hayat Bhandara, co-founder of Agriculture Republic and Digital Dera, said that for years, below par performance of the agriculture sector has been a matter of concern.

“Now, the situation is more alarming, as the wheat produce will be far less than the required quantities even if there is no natural disaster in 2023,” he added.

The country needs to import wheat, as the production would not be insufficient to fulfil the domestic requirements.

“In case of any natural disaster like torrential rains, floods or heatwave, the wheat production will further decline. In that case, it will be really tough for a country facing a huge trade and current account deficits to feed such a huge population,” he said, adding that low production of main staple food for two consecutive years was a source of concern for predominantly an agrarian economy.

“Yes, torrential rains and floods have caused a serious blow to the agriculture sector last year. Yes, the impact will be on the next year’s crops due to inundation of cultivable land for a longer period and as such a delay in sowing. It’s not the first time and it will not be the last one. The question arises where the government is and what is the role of the disaster management authorities. Where is the government policy and what is Plan B regarding alternative crops if the main one is not cultivable timely due to inundation for a longer period,” he said.

According to Bhandara, the government could still have managed sowing of more wheat by providing necessary inputs and timely announcement of the support price.

“Now, any revision in the support price at the time of harvesting will benefit the middlemen more than the hapless growers who were already under debt. Due to better return on investments, the Punjab growers are shifting to canola and corn. This trend will only worsen the food security situation,” he remarked.

The situation of cotton was even worse than the wheat crop due to climate change and pest attacks.

“Sugarcane, maize, rice and canola performed well last year and hopefully will continue to do the same in case of favourable weather conditions. But the situation of cotton is really alarming and is likely to go from bad to worse in the coming years. This scenario is not good for the export-oriented textile sector, as the country not have enough foreign exchange to spend on the import of raw cotton. In that case, we will lose exports and even face difficulties in meeting the domestic textile requirements,” he added.

It was the right time to increase linkages between the industry and the farmers, which was impossible without the government intervention.

Bhandara suggested the government take immediate, short- and long-term measures for reaping benefits of the actual potential of the agriculture sector in the country.

“We need to develop value chains, update marketing systems, introduce value additions, improve access of small growers to quality inputs, technology and credit for giving a boost to the agriculture sector,” he said.

Muhammad Asim, CropLife Biotechnology and Seed Committee head, said that negative impacts of the torrential rains and floods in 2022 would last in 2023.

“The floods and rains have damaged wheat, fodder, tomato, onion and chili crops. The prices of these commodities are high and the trend will continue till the arrival of the next crops. Wheat sowing targets have not been achieved, which would lead to less produce next year. The situation will go from bad to worse in case of any natural calamity,” he said and suggested the government to go for timely placement of import orders to ensure the availability of main staple food for the end consumers.

“Pakistan is among the top most vulnerable countries to climate change. We need to develop resilience to mitigate its effects. We should go for climate-smart agriculture to meet future requirements. There is a need to use modern technology and adopt good farming practices to enhance crop yield and to meet the future needs of the increasing population.

The previous regime made an effort to increase wheat yield by 5 to 10 per cent through the use of technology. This practice should be adopted to free some land for cultivation of alternative crops such as oilseeds to minimise imports,” he said.

Giving farmers access to innovative technologies is the need of the hour to ensure food security in the days to come, he said, adding that it was important for an agrarian country facing a huge trade deficit to produce extra quantities to earn the much-needed foreign exchange.

Asim suggested devising and implementing a doable agriculture policy. The government should focus on to enhance the yield of major crops and encourage the sowing of oilseeds, pulses, beans, vegetables and fruits to meet the domestic needs and export the excess produce.

According to him, the small growers should be provided storage facilities so that they could keep and sell their products according to their own convenience.

Asim regretted that the lack of interest on the part of the industry and the government has seriously damaged the cotton crop in the country.

“The situation is going from bad to worse with each passing year. Sugarcane has gradually eaten up the land, which was previously under cotton cultivation. Due to the less yield and frequent pest attacks, cotton growers are looking for alternative crops,” he said, adding that the textile industry was now under threat, as the country could not spend $8 to $10 billion on the import of raw cotton.

“There is a need to introduce more suitable varieties and adopt modern technology to revive the cotton crop,” Asim said, adding that the situation was so bad that the formulation and implementation of any revamping plan would be an uphill task.