In the current global and regional environment, Pakistan must work on a course of attaining domestic political stability

In international politics, timing is of essence. Incidentally, Pakistan has found itself entangled into a phase of worsening domestic instability which coincides with a deepening turmoil particularly not just in our region, but generally in the world. On one hand, this aggravates Pakistan’s difficulties for making independent choices on key policies, particularly in the economic domain, while on the other hand, it signifies increasing impediments in the way for pursuing a regional approach to address the unprecedentedly grave challenges.

It all started with the deteriorating situation in Afghanistan during 2021, which finally led to the establishment of a Taliban-led interim government in the country. In a similar situation in the 1990s, Afghanistan witnessed the worst manifestation of regional proxies at loggerheads with each other in collaboration with fragmented internal actors. This time although no active armed conflict or proxy war has yet been ignited, the neighbouring and regional countries have not been able to evolve a working consensus for interaction and engagement with, and recognition of the Taliban regime.

Last year, following the Taliban takeover the then government of Pakistan launched an initiative for consultation among Afghanistan’s neighbouring countries for discussing the situation in the war-torn country and evolving a consensus on the way forward. For this purpose, Pakistan hosted a virtual conference of the Foreign Ministers of six neighbouring countries of Afghanistan – Pakistan, Iran, China, Tajikistan, Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan – in Islamabad on 8 September 2021. The precedence for this Conference came from a similar Kabul Declaration of 2002 between the then Transitional Administration of Afghanistan and Afghanistan’s neighbours for good neighborly relations. Following the 8th September conference, it became quite obvious that neighbouring countries with divergent perspectives were far from consensus regarding dealing with the return of Taliban to Afghanistan, particularly when the Taliban government was also not part of the process.

While the situation in Afghanistan demanded frequent meetings of the neighbouring countries to explore ways of crafting a consensus and avoiding Afghanistan from sliding into another phase of chaos and instability, to the contrary the gap in the subsequent conferences actually continued to increase. At the second meeting held in Tehran on 27 October 2021 too, there was no consensus on inviting Taliban.

There were some expectations that the third conference held in Tunxi China on March 31st 2022 would entail initiatives to pave the way for enhancing formal engagement with the Afghan interim government at regional level as the Taliban Acting Foreign Minister Amir Khan Muttaqi was invited to the meeting for the first time in this regional format. However, the Afghan interim government’s decision to go back on its earlier announcement of opening girls’ high schools just a few days prior to the conference seriously damaged any prospects for the normalization of Afghanistan’s engagement with the world.

This forum of neighbours and Russia seems to be losing momentum as it has not yet come up with a coherent approach for narrowing differences on Afghanistan among the members. This is also evident from the fact that the next conference in this format will be held next year in Uzbekistan with a gap of over a year from the previous session. Some countries question the criteria for membership of this format. While the forum had started in Islamabad as a neighbours’ forum, at the second conference held in Tehran on 27 October 2021, Russia also became a part of it because of its interest in and close relevance to the affairs relating to Afghanistan. While Russian inclusion in this format has been acceptable to the neighbouring countries, it has also led to efforts by other regional countries to revive alternate foras like Regional Economic Cooperation Conference on Afghanistan (RECCA) or a forum of special envoys of a much larger group of countries having interest in Afghanistan.

In the meantime, new sources of tensions and cleavages seem to be appearing on the international and regional scene. Since earlier this year, conflict in Ukraine has exacerbated fragmentation among some major powers including the United States, Russia, China and the European countries. All indications are that Ukraine is going to be a long drawn conflict and its impact on European economy and politics would be far reaching, and defining in many respects with regard to the future power balance.

The Ukraine conflict has an intrinsic linkage with global oil output and energy supplies. Not only that Europe’s energy supplies, largely dependent on Russian gas, are under tremendous stress, but recently fissures have also appeared in the relations between two old-time strategic allies – Saudi Arabia and the United States. Saudi Arabia went ahead to cut oil output despite the US appeal not to do so ostensibly putting pressure on the US through signaling a closer relationship with the Russians in future. The Saudi actions even if they are for seeking an adjustment in its relations with the Biden Administration are much harsher and louder at the public level than anything in the past and are alluding towards changing global and regional dynamics.

The US-Iran tensions have remained a constant in the wider regional equation for the past over four decades. The prospects for restoration of a Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) or a revised nuclear deal with Iran have almost diminished. Iran’s increasing collaboration with Russia in different fields in recent years is causing an unease in the western world in general and the US in particular. Voices have been raised by Ukrainian and US experts regarding use of Iranian drones by Russian forces in Ukraine. As Iran continues to enhance its active role in the Middle East and other regions, internally it is shocked at an increasing public uprising sparked by the death of an Iranian woman Masha Amini in police custody arrested for “unsuitable attire”.

The US focus to contain the rise of China in all areas and spheres is likely to continue and even exacerbate while also manifesting it in the regional flash points whether in Afghanistan, Middle East or elsewhere. From a US perspective this approach can effectively prevent and impede progress on China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), which has already gone through a slowdown in the past 2-3 years due to prevalence of COVID-19.

In the current situation marked by increasing polarization, India is trying to place itself in a position where it can take advantage of contradictions in the prevailing global and regional order. It is engaged in efforts to present itself as a counterweight to China in economy as well as regional influence. Recently Prime Minister Narendra Modi unleashed a $1.2 trillion package titled Gati Shakti (strength of speed) with a plan to snatch factories from China. India is the largest buyer of weapons and defence equipment from the US, Russia and other leading exporters. It’s a leading buyer of oil from the Middle East as well as Russia.

However, India is becoming a victim of its own contradictions. Its aspirations as a rising economic power are seriously undermined by a state-sponsored policy of Hinduization and brutalization of Muslims. Recently it has displayed an inability to grasp even the mildest of criticism by its economic partners including the United States and Germany regarding addressing Kashmir dispute according to aspirations of Kashmiris. And in the case of Pakistan, it is not willing to show any moderation and respect for international norms when its leaders issue public statements showing their unwillingness to even play cricket in Pakistan in the Asia Cup.

In the current global and regional environment marked by gross complexities, it is important for Pakistan to work on a course of attaining domestic political stability and addressing its grave economic challenges. An expected FATF decision to remove Pakistan from the grey list can bring a breadth of fresh air. On the foreign policy front the priority should be attached to an approach of regional economic cooperation and connectivity. Without addressing the fundamentals, the challenges will continue to aggravate.

The writer is a former ambassador of Pakistan to Afghanistan