Experts chalk out the options available to the federal govt in the event of the dissolution of provincial assemblies

LAHORE: Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) Chairman Imran Khan declared that the provincial assemblies of Punjab and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KP) would be dissolved, effectively ending the nearly month-long long march. The dissolution, however, is subject to the approval of the coalition and parliamentary parties.

Observers describe the former prime minister’s action as a “masterstroke,” and they believe that if both provincial assemblies are dissolved, the federal government will be forced to call a general election. After failing to compel the appointment of his preferred army chief, this is referred to in government circles as a “face-saving measure.”

However, observers are questioning whether immediate by-elections are possible following a large number of resignations or dissolutions of provincial assemblies. What options does the federal government have in dealing with these resignations or dissolutions of assemblies? How easily can the governor’s rule be implemented? Can the assembly be dissolved if there is a motion of no confidence against the chief minister? What happens if the Chief Minister is asked to cast a vote of confidence? Can a motion of no confidence be introduced while the assembly is still in session?

Ahmad Bilal Mehboob, an expert on parliamentary affairs, said that a by-election would be held in 60 or 90 days in the case of a large number of resignations from the provincial assemblies or their dissolution. There is no constitutional prohibition on holding by-elections, but it will be an expensive exercise, with one seat costing the national exchequer up to Rs 100 million.

“It would be a tall order to mobilise law enforcement agencies on such a massive scale, and that too only for the next ten months,” he said.

According to Ahmed Bilal, the government has no choice but to hold general elections in response to such a situation.

In response to the resignations of PTI National Assembly members, he stated, “After the no-confidence motion was successful, the new Speaker halted the resignations and accepted only a few.”

“This cannot happen in the provincial assemblies because the speakers are PTI members, so they will accept the resignations immediately and forward them to the Election Commission, and elections must be held within 60 days,” he explained.

The expert added that the federal government can impose the governor’s rule in any province and extend it for six months, but a resolution passed by the provincial assembly is required.

Simultaneously, he stated that “after the resignations of PTI MPAs, the remaining members of the other parties will be able to easily pass the resolution on the governor’s rule.” He did, however, state that the PTI could dissolve assemblies rather than tender resignation.

“The other way to implement the governor’s rule is to pass a resolution in favour of it by the joint session of parliament,” Ahmad Bilal Mehboob said, adding that “this option is also available to the coalition government due to the overall majority in the Senate and the National Assembly.”

Azhar Siddique, a top constitutional expert, disagreed with Mehboob’s assessment and rejected the governor rule, arguing that Article 232 made it clear that the governor rule could be implemented in cases of external threat or internal unrest, which are frequently present.

He claimed that a no-confidence motion could be introduced in either situation, regardless of whether the legislature was in session or not, under Article 112 of the Constitution. However, it would require a simple majority to pass.

He stated that Article 130 allowed the governor to request that the chief minister seek a vote of confidence from the assembly, but that in that case, the governor would call the assembly session. He explained that because the assembly session is still in progress, the governor cannot request a vote of confidence from the CM. The current assembly session was summoned by the assembly speaker.

He added that a viable provincial government cannot be run by the remaining members of the Punjab assembly following the resignations of the PTI because the PTI and PML-Q held a simple majority in the Punjab assembly with a thin majority.

He claimed that the Punjab Assembly could only survive if the PML-Q parted ways with the PTI and joined the opposition with the PML-N and PPP. He stated that the PTI would take the option of dissolving the assembly, that the chief minister would send advice to the governor, and that the assembly would be dissolved automatically after 48 hours.

However, in his opinion, “the federal government is running out of options in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province because PTI enjoyed a simple majority in the assembly and the federal government is not in a position to take practical steps in this regard.”

In the event of a no-confidence motion against a chief minister, he stated that the CM cannot recommend dissolving the assembly until the no-confidence motion is voted on or withdrawn.

“If a no-confidence motion fails, another motion of similar nature can be presented, and thus the dissolution of the assemblies can be suspended.”

According to Zafarullah Khan, another constitutional expert, by-elections are possible after a large number of resignations, but elections cannot be held if the assembly’s term is very short.

“The chief minister of a province has the constitutional right to dissolve the assembly, and despite the governor’s opposition, the assembly will be automatically dissolved within 48 hours of the chief minister’s decision,” he opined.

Dialogue is the only option

The federal government sees dialogue as the only way to avoid the dissolution of provincial assemblies, which requires the consent of the opposition party and without which dialogue will not be possible.

“After the 18th Amendment, governor rule cannot be established in any province, and even if it occurs, the assembly is automatically restored after a few days,” Zafarullah Khan maintained.

In this regard, he cited the implementation of governor’s rule in Balochistan by the PPP federal government, saying, “Assemblies were restored automatically after the time specified in the constitution.”

Former Election Commission Secretary Kanwar Dilshad believed that “by-elections must be held within 90 days of the dissolution of provincial assemblies and 60 days of the resignations of provincial assembly members.”

“The federal government has the option of preventing the dissolution of the assemblies by asking the chief minister to take a vote of confidence through the governor of Punjab,” he said, adding that “meanwhile, if some assembly members move around, Pervaiz Elahi’s chief ministry may be jeopardised.”

According to Kanwar Dilshad, governor’s rule can be imposed under Article 234 of the Constitution only if the law and order situation in a province is extremely bad.