“The days of the coalition govt are numbered. Pakistan is heading towards polls”

Ijaz ul Haq, PML-Z Leader

the days of Shehbaz Sharif’s coalition government are numbered as Pakistan is heading towards general elections, most probably after Eid. The insistence of the present regime on holding elections in two federating units and on recently vacated National Assembly seats will not last long. All plans by coalition partners to disqualify popular leader Imran Khan before general elections have not worked so far. Beating Imran Khan in free and fair elections is apparently impossible.

The question is what will happen if Pakistan’s Tehreek-i-Insaf gets a clear majority in Punjab and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. In that scenario, the sufferings of the PML-N and coalition partners will increase. A new military leadership is setting in that has realised the severity of the situation. The last Corps Commanders meeting discussed in detail the prevailing political and economic situation. The National Security Council has also indicated that general elections will be held. Everybody knows that elections in more than half of the country are out of the question.

Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif will need to vacate the office and initiate procedures for holding general elections, as only a stable government formed after free, fair, and transparent polls can take the country out of prevailing political and economic crises. Free and fair elections are in the interests of all the stakeholders. It is not the time to establish Islami Jamhoori Ittehad. A merger of the MQM or a partnership of the PPP with the Balochistan Awami Party will not work. There is a realisation that free and fair polls will bring stability to the country besides improving the image of institutions. I think PTI will forgive and forget and move forward with a better narrative. PML-N lost a lot while fighting against Pervaiz Musharaf, and the PTI should not make the same mistake. The economy is directly linked to internal political stability. There is a need for collective efforts to pull the country out of serious crises. Recent pledges of billions of dollars for flood relief activities are not aid but soft loans. The US and Germany will spend money through non-governmental organisations. They have also started surveys to determine whether the money will be spent on flood victims or go into the pockets of the ruling elite. This is really embarrassing for the country. We need to get rid of such humiliating soft loans and take concrete measures for the revival and sustainability of the economy.

In the prevailing scenario, our strategic assets and defence security are at stake. We are facing difficulties in opening letters of credit for importing parts for Al-Khalid Tanks, JF Thunder, gas, and raw materials for the manufacturing sector. The closure of a huge number of textile mills has rendered thousands of workers jobless. High input costs have made our products uncompetitive in the global market. We need a stable government and continuity of policies to bring our own house in order. This can only be achieved through free and fair elections, and the institutions have realised this fact.

“Right now, the economy is more important than ending political unrest”

Manzoor Ahmed, PPP Leader

Sticking to the International Monetary Fund (IMF) plan is not just for getting a tranche of an already-agreed loan from the global lending agency; it is also a prerequisite for improving our financial rating. Global financial institutions or friendly states will never give money to a country with a question mark over its ability to repay.

Right now, the revival of the economy is more important than anything else. The economy is a federal subject, and as such, it is up to the centre to deal with the issue. The coalition government will stick to its plan to finish its term with the goal of continuing efforts to revive the sick economy and put it back on track. As such, the people of two federating units will elect governments for the next five-year term, and elections for the National Assembly and the two remaining provinces will be held on time. Yes, there is political instability, and such a scenario will only prolong the crisis. But right now, the economy is more important than ending political unrest or doing something else. It’s not an issue of the federal government but one of the states, and there are arrangements for filling holes in the economic fabric. Imran Khan dissolved assemblies in order to put pressure on the government to hold general elections. But now is not the right time for this exercise. The right time to go for general elections was when the Pakistan Democratic Movement and the Pakistan People’s Party submitted a motion of no confidence against the then Prime Minister. At that time, Imran Khan could have engaged the joint opposition in talks about holding general elections. Now the situation is quite different due to the emergence of a more serious issue. The question is: what will be the consequences of holding elections in two provinces and not in the centre and four federating units? The simple answer is prolonged political unrest, regardless of the election results. If PTI wins, it will start a confrontation with the federal government. In the event of a defeat, the PTI will re-ignite the agitation by alleging rigging. Political chaos will continue even if there are general elections but PTI loses like it did in local bodies’ polls in Sindh. Instead of pursuing this option, all efforts should be directed toward addressing the more pressing economic issues. The real issue in Pakistan is that the ruling elite is not ready to sacrifice. Unlike in other countries where the wealthy pay taxes to spend on the less fortunate, the situation in Pakistan is diametrically opposed. Here the poor are paying indirect taxes, spending hard-earned money on paying utility bills, and bearing the brunt of skyrocketing prices of essential commodities. Contrary to this, the ruling elite is enjoying protocol and getting loans written off. The real problem is that the elite is still unwilling to make any sacrifices. The question is how we can move forward if the prevailing situation persists. Inordinate delay in taking decisions on important national issues is also a big problem. PPP’s leadership conceived the idea of generating electricity from Thar coal, but it was implemented after 25 long years.

“Election is the  right option for a country plagued by political and economic instability”

Amir ul Azeem, JI Leader

Holding elections in two provinces is out of the question. Punjab is the biggest province and comprises half of the country. So it is next to impossible to hold elections in Punjab and continue with the National Assembly. It can be the desire of some political parties, but practically, it is not possible. Going ahead with elections in Punjab and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and on recently vacated NA seats will only prolong political instability.

Regardless of the outcome of the elections, the situation will be disastrous for the country. The question is what will happen if Imran Khan gets a majority in Punjab, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, or both provinces? This will lead to a tussle between the federal government and the provinces. Imran Khan will launch a new agitation if the provinces’ elections are not won, citing allegations of rigging. In either case, there will be political unrest, which only worsens the economic crisis, and the country cannot afford such a scenario.

The real question is: what will be the benefit of holding two elections with a few-month gap? Such an adventure at this stage can prove disastrous for the country.

Prolonged political unrest and economic crisis can put our national solidarity, integrity, and strategic assets at stake. Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif will need to step down to pave the way for the formulation of a caretaker setup for holding elections for the NA and legislatures of all the federating units on the same days.

This is the right option for a country already bearing the brunt of political and economic instability. Free, fair, and transparent polls are key to bringing about a stable government.

Then, for the economy to be revived and grow sustainably, doable policies must be devised and implemented in letter and spirit. Yes, the establishment is a critical factor that cannot be overlooked; it will not leave everything to politicians and will continue to play a role behind the scenes.

The unification of the Mutahida Qaumi Movement is seen as an effort to get desired results in the port city. But one thing is clear: the country cannot afford rigging in general elections, as such a scenario will only worsen the political and economic situation. Moreover, any rigging will further damage the image of the institutions.

There is a realisation of this fact, and I think the establishment will not miss the opportunity of reviving its prestige among the public at large.