Analysts believe a new political game has started in Balochistan

QUETTA: Balochistan is all set to witness yet another cycle of political betrayals and shifting loyalties thanks to the machinations of what some analysts describe as the country’s “Hobbesian Leviathan” – powers that be which are adept at shifting the political winds in this largely dry and barren province.

Balochistan is generally divided between the so-called left and right wing parties – the former now comprising nationalist parties that continually emerge, merge, and divide on ideological basis.

Most of the right wing parties are, however, formed and run directly under the aegis of the country’s powerful establishment. These so-called federal parties are usually an assortment of electables.

In early 2018, the establishment conducted a new experiment in Balochistan as it created overnight a new party, the Balochistan Awami Party (BAP), which also managed to oust the Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz’s (PML-N) led coalition government in the province just months before the 2018 polls.

Those who had joined this party were the same people who had previously been representing the establishment in Balochistan as part of some other federal parties.

However, the BAP experiment has apparently failed as the same people who had come together overnight to form the party—which still rules over the province—are now ready to jump ship and join other federal parties that have managed to win the favor of the establishment.

The failure of BAP was evident from day one and the party’s decision to bring an in-house change – in October 2021 – and work with “a new determination” did not change much.

In view of this failure, a new political realignment is underway to give greater share to the Pakistan Peoples Party (PPP) and the Jamiat Ulema-e-Islam (JUI-F) in Balochistan.

That is why some lawmakers of BAP are likely to join the PPP before the end of the government’s term, while others, including Chief Minister Quddus Bizenjo, will join the PPP just before the next elections.

Commenting on the development, political analyst Shahid Rind said BAP’s Anwarul Haq Kakar has re-cently said while talking to various TV channel hosts that the purpose for which BAP was formed could not be achieved. Senator Sarfaraz Bugti has also endorsed this view.

“The process of the party’s disintegration started when its lawmakers moved a no-confidence motion against chief minister Jam Kamal and when the party removed him from the position of the party chief.”

He said electables had come together to form BAP and they had nothing to do with the cause that Anwarul Haq Kakar talks about.

“70% of the people who had joined the party had nothing to do with the motives behind the for-mation of the party,” he said. “They were only interested in powerful positions and funds,” Rind said.

“When most of your people have nothing to do with the party’s professed ideology; when they are pursuing their personal interests then you cannot stop them from jumping ship in search of better prospects.”

He said BAP was also created to pursue personal interests and its members have more or less achieved their objective. Rind said in Balochistan, the electables start getting attracted to any party which becomes stable and powerful in the Centre.

“Nowadays, the relationship between the establishment and the Bilawal House [the PPP] is getting warmer but it will be too early to say the PPP is going to get a big share in the Balochistan govern-ment.”

He said the biggest problem of Balochistan is that at least 70% of its lawmakers pursue their own inter-ests rather than caring about the province or the state.

“As long as these 70% people are part of the Balochistan Assembly, new political groups will continually form and older will disappear without contributing anything to the province and its people.”

Jalal Noorzai, another political analyst, said, BAP exploited the province as much as it could.

“Politicians spent their energy in getting financial and other benefits as the province went to pot. Now that BAP has lost steam, the politicians will join the PPP which will get the status of BAP 2.0.

“The Zardari [PPP] policy [of the establishment] will continue for the next 5 years and the province and its people will be further exploited,” he said.

Abdul Khaliq Rind, the president of the Quetta Press Club, said BAP was formed before the 2018 gen-eral election with the slogan of resolving the problems of Balochistan

“If we look at the past, these members who are now part of BAP were part of the PML-N. Leaving the PML-N, these members formed this party, while earlier in 2008, the same people had become mem-bers of the Balochistan Assembly on the ticket of the PML-Q.”

He said it is the history of Pakistan that no assembly member leaves the ruling party, but in Balochistan three members of the ruling BAP have joined the PPP.  He said these defections have put a question mark over BAP’s future.

“Although some BAP members are still claiming that their party will retain its status and go to the polls, political circles suggest that more BAP members are also leaving the party,” he said.

He said it is too early to say anything about the future of BAP but it seems that BAP will not be able to sustain itself as a major party.

“The party may survive and some members may even win the elections, but it is unlikely that the party will win seats in large numbers,” he said

He said the PML-N is not paying any special attention to Balochistan due to which the PPP has estab-lished a foothold here. “This makes BAP’s future look bleaker,” he added.