All the relevant agencies seem to be on one page with a single agenda: delay the elections in the Punjab and KP

LAHORE: Although the Lahore High Court issued the eagerly anticipated decision regarding the date for the elections in the Punjab, the provincial assembly’s future still hangs in the balance. This because the top election body is purportedly conspiring with the federal government to avoid enforcing the judicial ruling on the flimsy ground that it lacks both human and financial resources.

On Feb 10, Justice Jawad Hassan of the Lahore High Court ordered the Election Commission of Pakistan (ECP) to immediately announce the date for the general elections of the Punjab Assembly after consultation with the governor, to ensure that elections are held not later than 90 days as per the Constitution.

However, legal and political analysts predict that the Supreme Court will ultimately determine whether or not to hold the elections in the Punjab since the federal and provincial governments are trying to make a case for their inability to provide the ECP the required resources for this exercise.

Though a consultative meeting was held between the election commission and the Punjab governor in the wake of the LHC verdict, the provincial and federal government bodies are maintaining they do not have the resources needed — ie. the requisite army and police personnel, the money for expenses and the staff for making the arrangements— to conduct the elections.

Analysts view this as a clear indication of the fact that the ruling coalition federal government does not want early elections in Pakistan’s two largest provinces, and is using government agencies to employ delaying tactics. Furthermore, some government advisers and ministers have also recently raised questions about whether the constitution is legally bound to hold elections anywhere within 90 days.

Constitutional and legal experts, however, resolutely maintain that the constitution clearly calls for elections to be held within 90 days. Constitutional expert Ahsan Khokhar said Article 224 of the Constitution states that if the assembly completes its term, elections must be held within 60 days, and if the assembly is dissolved before the completion of the term, elections should be held in 90 days.

It is the responsibility of the Election Commission to ensure the conduct of elections. The time of 90 days has been stipulated in the constitution because it was surmised that after starting the election process, about two months are needed to complete the election process, from the submission of nomination papers to the final lists.

Khokhar believes that the election process should have started in the Punjab and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa by now, otherwise it will not be possible to complete this process in 90 days. He contends the Punjab and KPK governors’ dithering on the issue is largely responsible for the delay. The governors in the Punjab and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa are related to the Pakistan Muslim League-N leader in the federal government, and they are not giving a date for the elections. Along with them, the PML-N’s federal ministers and Prime Minister Shahbaz Sharif’s advisors have also expressed the view that elections in the country should be held at the same time after the completion of the term of the government.

Lawyer and legal expert Hafiz Ahsan Khokhar believes that under Article 105 of the constitution, it is the responsibility of the governor to give the final date for the election. After that, the Election Commission announces the election schedule. Now, he said, the LHC has bound the ECP to announce the election schedule after consultation with the governor.

In his address to the National Assembly, Federal Law Minister Azam Nazir Tatar  stated that “the constitution allows for the extension of the term of caretaker governments in the provinces if the economic or security situation of the country is bad.” As proof, he also cited two examples from the past, one of which was the delay in the date of the 2008 general elections after the death of former Prime Minister Benazir Bhutto in 2007.

However, in the opinion of constitutional expert Hafiz Ahsan Khokhar, there is no scope in the constitution for delaying elections. He contends that whenever the election date was deferred in the past, it was only an extension. Before the delay, the election schedule had been released and the election process had started. “The extraordinary decision taken at that time was made with the consultation and consent of all the political parties and the date for the elections was merely extended. This situation is entirely different. Now he government is not giving the date for the election and the election process has not started.” According to Khokhar, such statements clearly show that the federal government does not want elections in the provinces and is using delaying tactics to this end.

Recently, the Federal Interior Department informed the Election Commission that army and civil security personnel will not be available for the security required for the by-elections and the elections in the province of Punjab and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. According to media reports, the Ministry of Interior  informed the Election Commission that in view of the recent wave of terrorism and other threats in the country, the army and security agencies are fully engaged in dealing with those threats, so the army has regretted that it cannot provide security for the elections. That contention notwithstanding, no regular military operation has been officially announced by the federal government in the KP even after the recent terrorist attack in Peshawar.

Meanwhile Federal Energy  Minister  Khurram Dastgir said that although various federal ministers and senior government leaders have discussed the election  issue, no proposal has been brought before the cabinet to date and it is not under consideration. According to him, “we understand that the elections of the provincial assemblies will be held according to the period given in the constitution.”

However, he added, that in view of the current law and order situation, the Pakistan Army has taken the stand that it cannot provide the required security for the election. And, he said, another obstacle to the holding of the elections is that the IMF is conducting a very serious review of the financial affairs of the country, “so can we afford two big elections?”

Compounding this situation, according to the announcement by the EC, the Punjab Police has informed the Commission that the Election Commission will need about four lakh police personnel to conduct the elections in the Punjab, while the Punjab has only a little over one lakh police personnel available and “The services of the Army or Rangers will be required to meet this shortfall.” Also, The Punjab Inspector General of Police told the Election Commission that the Punjab Police is also engaged in operations against dacoits in the Kutch area of South Punjab, and there are “security threats” in various cities of the province and in the border areas where police contingents have had to be deployed. He maintained that it would take four to five months to complete this operation, so it will be a difficult task to conduct provincial assembly elections in the Punjab until this is completed.

During the same briefing given to the Election Commission, the Chief Secretary Punjab divulged that “the Punjab government is also facing a financial deficit,” and suggested to the EC that the elections of the National and Provincial Assemblies should be held at the same time. He stated if that was not possible, the National Assembly by-elections and the Provincial Assembly elections should be held at the same time, otherwise the expenses would be doubled. According to a subsequent announcement by the Election Commission, 42 billion rupees will be required to make clean and transparent elections possible.

Amid the ongoing debate about elections, the provincial government announced that the census process will be launched in the month of March and manpower will be required for this purpose. The statement read that if the police and government machineries are busy in the arrangements for the elections, it will be difficult to muster the manpower for the census. Now, according to the Election Commission, after a separate consultation meeting, the commission will take a decision in this regard.

The Election Commission of Pakistan (ECP) is also facing difficulties in getting the required amount from the government for the electoral exercise. In view of the economic challenge facing the country, the Finance Ministry has requested the Election Commission to postpone the demand for an additional grant for the elections.

The ECP had requested a supplementary grant of Rs 20 billion for the Punjab and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa Assembly along with the by-election on 93 seats of the National Assembly and an additional grant of over Rs 14 billion for the upcoming elections.

The letter written on Wednesday said that the ECP had requested Rs 52 billion for election expenses, which was later reduced to Rs 47 billion at the request of the Finance Ministry. According to the letter, so far five billion rupees of that sum have been released, while the procurement of the Rs.10 additional billion required is being worked on. At the same time, while referring to the economic situation, the Ministry of Finance said that the government is currently in the throes of an extraordinary economic crisis with a financial deficit staring the country in the face.

Against this backdrop, the ministry said, the government has to provide funds for the flood-affected areas and also conduct a census. This will lead to an additional economic burden due to unscheduled and unbudgeted expenditure. And the stringent IMF conditions make the situation even harder.

Legal expert Mr. Khokhar, however contends that all the excuses being offered show that the government does not want elections and is therefore deliberately avoiding providing the required resources to the Election Commission. According to him, “The Election Commission is a constitutional institution and it has so many powers that if it needs the support of any institution and resources from the government to conduct elections, they have to provide them.”

As for the government’s apparent reluctance to assure the Election Commission of manpower for the needed security arrangements and personnel from the police, army and civil security agencies if elections are held, Federal Energy Minister Khurram Dastgir said that the government is definitely not reluctant to provide resources and when the Election Commission, which is an independent body, announces the date for the election, “we will have to provide all the resources needed as that is our constitutional responsibility.”

That aside, in view of the economic and security situation of the country, if such a proposal comes before the cabinet, what decision will the cabinet take?  According to Dastagir, the current cabinet consists of different parties and the cabinet members have varying opinions on this matter. So the constitutional credibility of any proposal will be thoroughly examined and decided.

Constitutional experts say after the LHC verdict, the election body could have approached the LHC or the Supreme Court to explain its position, specifically the fact that the federal government and other institutions are not cooperating with it, specifically in regard to the elections.

But it seems that all the government institutions are on the same page with one agenda: delay the elections. And they have certainly built a case to support their stance. The Ministry of Defense has apologetically said at present the  deployment of the armed forces, the Rangers and the Frontier Constabulary for election duties is not feasible on account of  the increasing incidents of terrorism in the country and engagement in the census process which have engaged them.

The Lahore High Court has also declined to provide judicial officers as returning officers and district officers for the Punjab Assembly and National Assembly by-elections. In a letter to the Secretary Election Commission, the Registrar High Court stated the LHC is “unable to provide judicial officers for the election as per the orders of the Chief Justice.” It is true that at present more than 1.3 million cases are pending in the Punjab and the provision of judicial officers will further increase the pendency of cases. The Punjab is already facing a shortage of 825 judicial officers.

Thus, in light of the overall situation, the elections don’t seem likely any time soon.