What we must know about the climate-induced migration to Karachi

Karachi: As per online Oxford Bibliographies migration “refers to the movement of people from one location to another. Although migration occurs both within and between countries, our discussion concentrates on the latter type of migration, international migration.

The discussion of international migration usually focuses on the causes and consequences of the movement for the individual migrant. The literature on the causes of international migration explains why people move from one location to another in spite of the substantial economic, social, and psychological costs incurred. The literature on the consequences of international migration is diverse, addressing not only the processes of immigrants integrated into the receiving society but also various dimensions of their integration”.

Karachi is called the city of migrants and it has braved at least three major waves of migration. The causes and impacts of migration after the independence of the sub-continent in 1947, the migration from the former Eastern wing in 1971 and the post-1978 migration from post-conflict Afghanistan are documented in a very detailed manner.

A considerable body of literature exists on the above-mentioned in the form of media articles, research reports and photographic documentation as initiated by the international organisation, researchers, media professionals and academics.

Before the 2017 Census, the most authentic referred document on migration are the decennial census (which unfortunately for various political and administrative reasons was executed late) reports which gives a fair idea about the migrant population at the district level with one most important limitation: the reasons for migration are not mentioned. To fill this gap and otherwise, a lot of material has surfaced to document the cause and impacts of migration on both donor and host places.

Amongst the causes of migration one of the factors that appear in the literature are the changes in the ecological landscape of Pakistan. However, it needs further scholarly investigation as changes in the ecological settings of Pakistan are now more frequent and their impacts are widely rampant.

Floods 2022 and the recent migration is a case in point where we still don’t know the exact numbers, the spatial distribution of the incoming migrants to the City, the difficulties they are facing and the housing, transport and service provisions scenario of the host settlements.

According to some media reports Pakistan had over 680,000 estimated climate migrants in 2020 and this number may jump to 2 million by 2050. While the displacement occurring due to sudden natural disasters can be more temporary, many people displaced by sudden natural disasters can also become permanently displaced. It is mentioned by the researchers that migration from climate-sensitive areas is in its very essence a coping mechanism for the affected population and small towns and big cities remain the only viable option as these provide prospects for work, education and health services, are often the best option and Karachi is no exception to the phenomenon.

If one gets the chance to travel along the M9 (earlier Super Highway), the sight of the make-shifts home is too obvious to get ignored. The population is there for the last 12 years and their numbers are swelling. They are displaced by the floods of 2010 and do not want to go back. Then there is an increasing abodes of Seraiki-speaking population on the edges of District Central and alongside the tail end of the University Road towards Safoora and Phalwan Goth. They are displaced by agriculture-water scarcity in Southern Punjab.

The literature on research on climate change identifies two forms of climate change, fast-onset events and slow-onset events defining the pace of the resulting disasters as well. In the context of Pakistan disasters resulting from fast-onset climate change refers to extreme events such as Floods in 2010, 2012 and 2022, whereas slow-onset climate change refers to the risks and impacts associated with events such as sea-intrusion along the coastal belt of Thatta: Kharo Chann, Keti Bunder and others areas. By virtue of the proximity with their existing clans in Karachi and due to the very nature of their sea-dependent occupations, the migrants of the sea intrusion prefer to settle in the Rehri Goth and Ibrahim Hyderi areas of Karachi.

The irony of the matter is that we don’t know the frequency of the incoming migrants, nor do we exactly know their family composition, their health status, their numbers and their relationship with the host settlements. Even a cursory look at Karachi’s tumultuous history made it mandatory to have detailed information about the incoming population’s social and political aspirations; their second generation is bound to express their expectations with the governance apparatus in a more assertive manner.

Whether their journey to uplift their living standards will be achieved through negotiations or violent struggles should be the concern and quest of the political actors and administrative regime of the province. Their numbers are bound to increase and so will be their expectation from their City administration.

Climate-induced migration into urban areas is influencing urban planning exercises, policy decisions and above all the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs).  As mentioned before the pressures on urban infrastructures and institutions for housing, employment, water and sanitation, public health and transportation get amplified. The interplay of climate change, migration and urbanization is exacerbating the existing vulnerabilities of the population living in Karachi.

As the sudden and slow onset of climate-related changes makes the traditional means of livelihood obsolete, the affected population tends to move to Karachi City to secure means of survival.

The call of the day is that for better planning of Karachi, it is imperative to map, understand, predict and address migration movements that may result from sudden-onset and slow-onset natural disasters, the adverse effects of climate change and environmental degradation. 

The writer is a PhD scholar, and board member of the Urban Resource Centre, Karachi. mansooraza@gmail.com