• According to Nielsen’s Gracenote, the US are the favorites to win the Women World Cup.
• Sweden, Germany, France, and England are the top contenders alongside the US.
• Gracenote’s simulations predict Sweden has an 11% chance of winning.

According to Nielsen’s Gracenote, the United States (US) are the favorites to win the Women World Cup, but their quest for a third consecutive championship faces tough competition from Europe’s top teams as well as co-hosts Australia.

Only 18% of the time can the Americans win their fifth game overall. The top four candidates are Sweden, Germany, France, and England, and there is a 58% likelihood that one of these five will be the victor.

According to Gracenote’s prediction, which was based on approximately one million simulations of the competition, Sweden, the third-placed team and Olympic silver medalist, had an 11% probability of winning.

“Our simulations confirm that World Cup 2023 is likely to be a very open and competitive tournament,” said Gracenote’s head of analysis Simon Gleave.

“There is a strong challenge to champions and favorites USA from Europe and Australia’s home advantage has boosted them to the seventh most likely team to win the competition.”

The other favorites were Germany (11%), France (9%), England (8%), Spain (8%), Australia (8%), Brazil (7%) and defending Olympic winners Canada (6%).

In that order, Spain, the U.S., France, Germany, Sweden, England, Japan, and Australia make up the eight most likely quarterfinalists. The U.S., Sweden, Germany, and France make up the eight most likely semifinalists.

The United States vs. Germany World Cup final has a mere 6% chance of happening, followed by the United States vs. France, England, Australia, and Brazil, in that order.

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