• Neither side in the conflict in Ukraine would make any significant advance.
• We are entering the bleak winter months.
• Ukrainian onslaught took place over most of the occupied Kharkiv.

Up until a few weeks ago, it appeared as though neither side in the conflict in Ukraine would make any significant advance as we entered the bleak winter months.

That prediction has changed as a result of the unexpected and successful Ukrainian onslaught that took place over most of the occupied Kharkiv and incited both recriminations in Moscow and the fervor of Ukraine’s Western backers.

After Ukraine seized more land in one week than Russian forces had in five, the Russian military must now consider what kind of force and where exactly it is placed can retake the initiative.

Additionally, there are significant political dynamics at play. The Kremlin must make difficult decisions on whether to proclaim a general mobilization to reenergize its deteriorating Ukrainian troops and how to handle a budget deficit despite having historically large foreign reserves.

Governments are preparing to spend heavily to alleviate the effects of an abnormally short supply, so Russia must decide how far to weaponize its influence over Europe’s gas supply.

The first indications that China’s never-complete backing for the Russian invasion may be diminishing provide another possible problem.

A shifting battlefield has given the Kremlin and Russia’s heavily criticized Defense Ministry a number of terrible alternatives, thanks to Ukraine’s dramatic counter-offensive across Kharkiv and more attritional advances in the south.

They must decide which front to focus on as winter draws closer and whether to step up their attempts to achieve Putin’s stated goal—the capture of the Donetsk and Luhansk areas. Currently, the Russians control 20% of Ukrainian territory, including the Crimea and some of the south.

The Russians now face a more difficult task in capturing Donetsk. Russian logistics have been found wanting after seven months of fighting, and the situation won’t get any better in colder, wetter weather.

Some analysts have started to wonder whether it’s possible for Ukraine to win. Depending on how success is defined. President Zelensky has made it clear that he wants to reclaim Crimea as well as all other occupied areas.

Former CIA Director and commander of US military forces in Iraq, General David Petraeus, predicted that Ukraine would retake territory that Russia had taken since February, adding that “it’s even conceivable they could retake Crimea and the Donbas” with the help of escalating resistance in occupied territory.

Petraeus told CNN that would take time, and hard battling. If Ukraine had that as its end goal, its supply lines would be compromised and its best forces would be dispersed far. The Ukrainian military would then be open to counterattacks.

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