Reemergence of TTP

The border towns of the Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Balochistan provinces are again experiencing an alarming spike in terrorist attacks by groups of two different mindsets – the fringe sub-nationalists and the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP).

Their terror activities halted for a few months following the Afghan Taliban’s takeover of Kabul, but now these elements appear to have regrouped and revived their anti-Pakistan foreign contacts.

The elusive anti-state elements in Balochistan have been targeting the security forces in coordinated attacks, inflicting human and structural losses on the security forces.

In the last two weeks, the Baloch insurgents have carried out at least five deadly attacks in Kech, Panjgur, Naushki, Sui and Jaffarabad. At least 10 security personnel embraced martyrdom on the night of 26 January when the rebels attacked a security checkpoint in Kech district. Similarly, in the failed terrorist attacks on Frontier Corps (FC) camp in Naushki and a security forces’ camp in Panjgur, resulting in heavy losses to the attackers belonging to the banned Baloch Liberation Army.

Muhammad Adnan Aamir, a security analyst in Quetta, argues that the recent surge in the attacks by the insurgents has taken everybody by surprise.

“Government officials, security forces and the analysts are all puzzled over this sudden activism. It was believed that after the Taliban takeover in Afghanistan, the insurgents will find it hard to hide there. They have lost their safe havens in Afghanistan,” Adnan said.

Many notable leaders of the Baloch insurgents were living quite peacefully in the posh Aino Maina area of Kandahar before the mid-August shift that forced them to abandon their comfort zone as they repeatedly came under deadly targeted attacks by unknown assailants.

Adnan Aamir said that there is no solid proof about the whereabouts of the insurgents and everyone is now just speculating. “One speculation is that they have gone over to Iran, where they have a free hand to carry out attacks on Pakistan. Another one suggests that they have shifted to Pakistan and are hiding in the inaccessible mountains in Balochistan. But I doubt both of them.”

Another view is that the insurgents are still operating from inaccessible areas of Afghanistan. But, regardless of their whereabouts, unconfirmed reports suggest that the outlawed TTP provided ‘operational support’ to the Baloch insurgents in their recent attacks against the security forces in Panjgur and Naushki.

Driven by an extremist religious mindset, the TTP has also intensified its terrorist activities mostly in the border towns of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, and in areas as far as federal capital Islamabad, Rawalpindi and Karachi, particularly after the end of its short-lived ceasefire with the Pakistani authorities.

In January alone, the TTP claimed killing 48 and injuring 53 security personnel in 42 attacks on Army, Frontier Corps, Police, Levies and intelligence officials mostly in areas of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa which are closer to the border with Afghanistan. North Waziristan tribal district seems to be the hotbed for such attacks as the group claimed 15 attacks there in January alone.

The January attacks include 11 bomb blasts, nine target killing incidents, six ambush attacks and most worrying of all, five sniper attacks using sophisticated weaponry that the TTP has probably laid their hands on after the chaotic withdrawal of the foreign forces from Afghanistan. However, sources in the TTP claim that they have had sniper guns in their possession since long and many of those were seized from the Pakistani security forces.

Similarly, the group has claimed at least nine attacks in the current month and it seems that the frequency of these attacks will keep rising in the coming weeks and months as the TTP might follow an Afghan Taliban style ‘Spring Offensive” as their numbers and strength continue to rise.

Mushtaq Yusufzai, a security analyst in KP, said the recent surge in the terrorist attacks shows the anger and frustration of the TTP as well as an attempt to stress their point that they are not a spent force. “The TTP have learnt a lot from the Afghan Taliban on the battlefield and they want to be in control of at least some of the territories in Pakistan, such as South or North Waziristan where they always felt safer before the military offensive in 2014. They are specifically targeting security and law enforcing forces in order to pressurise Pakistan to allow them back into the country,” Yusufzai said.

He added that the group has so far restrained itself from carrying out major attacks but it seems they will not stick to this trend for long pressure mounts on their leadership. “They want to re-engage in peace talks with Pakistan and are waiting for a positive response, which in their words means they will be granted entry into Pakistan. There are reports that the TTP is preparing for large-scale attacks in the summer as their tactics to pressurise Pakistan have not met with success so far. There are also reports that the TTP is getting strict warnings from the Afghan Taliban regarding any violations of using the Afghan soil against any foreign country,” Yusufzai claimed.

Although the Afghan Taliban have ruled out the possibility of TTP, or anybody using their country for launching attacks on Pakistan, the security forces in Pakistan firmly believe that at least two TTP attacks, one on August 29 which killed two security personnel and the recent attack in Kurram tribal district resulting in the martyrdom of five FC personnel, were initiated from across the border in Afghanistan.

Despite their claims of having gained ample fighting experience for tough terrains, it seems that the TTP is not adequately fit for direct engagement with the security forces. Two TTP attackers were killed in Islamabad on January 18th while a notorious local commander was killed in North Waziristan on February 9th in direct engagement with the forces.

“The TTP has an increased liking for the Afghan Taliban style guerilla warfare. They often attempt to catch security forces off guard as it increases their survival chances. It is like a hit-and-run practice where they want to avoid engagements with the security forces,” Mushtaq Yusufzai said.

Contents of a video shared by the TTP’s media wing on Wednesday on different social media platforms are disturbing in the sense that a number of security personnel are caught unaware as the terrorists target them using long range rifles with scopes and night vision goggles with thermal imaging capability. There are different views about how these expensive modern weapons ended up with the TTP.

“Foreign forces and Afghan National Army (ANA) personnel left a huge cache of sophisticated weapons and gadgets when the Taliban started sweeping across Afghanistan. Many arms dealers and smugglers were able to collect a range of weapons at a cheap price from common people who were first to access the deserted depots, stations and security posts. A fully equipped American M4 Carbine was readily put up for sale for as low as $1500 to $ 2000 in September. Similarly, the night vision goggles were sold for USD 400-500 a piece,” a source familiar with the Afghan-Pak weapons markets informed this scribe on condition of anonymity.

It is believed that the TTP was able to pay more than double, sometimes triple the amount to acquire these weapons and other gadgets from the black market.

It merits mentioning that the same weapons once used by the NATO and ANA forces later made their way to Pakistani arms markets and were quickly lapped up. A used M4 with mounted scope, laser beam and thermal imaging device were available in the range of PKR 700,000 to 900,000 as per the condition of the weapon. Similarly, a functional night vision goggle could be acquired separately from Darra Adam Khel for PKR 140,000 to 170,000. But these illegal weapons and gadgets suddenly vanished from the market, perhaps due to fears of seizure by security forces.

According to a recent report of the United Nations Security Council (UNSC), the number of TTP fighters who have assembled under the command of Noor Wali Mehsud, is somewhere between 3,000-5,500. However, this report most probably does not include the rising number of local outlaws joining TTP inside Pakistan. The TTP is mostly relying on these outlaws for their activities in the tribal districts.

The International Border Fencing, which has created serious issues for Pakistan with the Afghan Taliban, has also received strong objections from the TTP as they claim it is dividing the Pashtuns on both sides of the Durand Line. But it is a known fact that despite occasional breaches, the fence has restricted the movement of the TTP members from Afghanistan to Pakistan.

The TTP has effectively used the unfenced sections in Bajaur, North and South Waziristan. Spin Wam in North Waziristan was one route frequented by the smugglers and human traffickers who would also assist the TTP militants in crossing over into Pakistan in return for good money before the completion of the fence there. However, the illegal movement still continues in Zar Mailan, in Shawal valley that is stretched in both North and South Waziristan. Rigid mountains, thick pine forests, ravines and unfenced sections of the border make it relatively easy for the terrorist to move into Pakistan from Afghanistan without detection by the security forces.

In the aftermath of the increase in terrorist activities, the Pakistani security forces have also increased the intensity of intelligence-based operations against the TTP in North and South Waziristan. A number of successful operations have resulted in elimination of men associated with the TTP while many are reported to have been taken into custody as a result of these operations.

However, the state still faces two daunting challenges; the re-emergence of the TTP, which the state and its security forces earlier claimed to have dismantled, and secondly convincing the Afghan Taliban for strict action against the TTP leadership, who are believed to be enjoying a lot more freedom in the IEA government than in the previous government in Afghanistan.