A nation rises

The PTI jalsa at the Minar-e-Pakistan, witnessed a sea of people, a tsunami. Words fall short of describing what only a drone camera can capture. The satellite images show small dots packed on endless spans of land, roads, buildings, trees, light poles. Such a sight is rare in Pakistan.

It is said that the gatherings of Zulfikar Ali Bhutto were also huge. They may be right. But in the month of Ramzan, at midnight, in such hot weather, these visuals are incredible. What makes it unique is that this is now not just a local movement, but an international movement. People from all walks of life from the corners of Pakistan flocked there. Those wearing western designer clothes and those in dhotis and burqas were chanting one slogan “imported government na manzoor”.

Pakistanis have been blamed for being indifferent to larger issues, because they are so caught up in the daily rat race. The perception is that such protests took place in developed countries that have an educated public aware of rights and wrongs. With the masses struggling for survival, Pakistanis just cannot afford to think anything beyond the next meal. Protests, and that too sustainable protests, that force change like the American civil rights movement of Dr Martin Luther King in 1960s is unheard of in Pakistan. This impression was substantiated by the lack of public support for Zulfikar Ali Bhutto. When he was hanged, it was expected that all hell will break lose. Nothing of the sort happened. Similarly, when Nawaz Sharif was disqualified in Panama Case, he did a rally on GT road, but it fizzled out without adequate public support.

However, this movement is organic, charged, reverberating and resonating. Let us look at the reasons why this movement is unique:

1. Leader’s credibility – Lead from the top and lead by example, these are two principles that are the core of influential leaders. Just compare the way Imran Khan leads in crisis and the way other leaders like Nawaz Sharif, Shehbaz Sharif and Asif Zardari lead. Imran Khan always leads from the front.

During the 2013 election campaign, he had a fall two days before the elections but he addressed the public from the hospital. In the present crisis, he has been ditched by his own people and by stakeholders, but despite threats, he is fearlessly moving amongst the public taking on even a super power. On the other hand, the Sharif and the Zardari family have a history of absconding whenever the going gets tough. Nawaz used the excuse of danger to his life and left his party stranded. Shahbaz was also following suit, but was restrained at the airport. Benazir Bhutto and Asif Zardari were given NRO by Musharraf to escape to Dubai and then to return to Pakistan through a deal.

As the principle says, if you lead by example then the followers follow the leader. In Imran Khan’s case, they are inspired by his example of fighting till the last ball and in the case of Sharifs and Zardaris, their followers knowing that their leaders run away never really turn up in big numbers. Hence, the PPP and PMLN’s dependence on Maulana Fazal ur Rehman’s madrassa recruits.

2. Call to action – The masses move when there is a compelling call to action. When Nawaz Sharif was disqualified in the Panama papers case, his call to action was “mujhe kyun nikala” (why was I kicked out). This whimper did not wring people’s hearts. His supporters were not really convinced of his innocence because of his track record of corruption. By playing victim he could not engage the public.

After Benazir’s demise, PPP has struggled to have a charismatic leader. Both Bilawal and Zardari cannot present themselves as better choices as their 14 year performance in Sindh has been abysmal. Thus, when PTI leader Imran Khan gave his call to action of “imported government rejected” and “choose to be free or a slave”, it hits the right chord of Pakistanis who have not really come out of the shadow of colonial rule and American imposition.

3. The alternatives – Another reason for this mass response is the mere thought of having fourteen parties who have already been tested and rejected coming back again. The optics of a government with nearly all tainted faces has created fear ripples. The cabinet has almost 70% people on bail or under corruption charges. This has galvanized people fearing its impact on their future generations.

Movements can start energetically, but are tough to continue with the same zeal. The factors that will determine its success are:

Sustainability of narrative – While the narrative of self-esteem and sovereignty has touched the public, the most challenging part is its sustainability. The government will try to prolong elections to exhaust the movement. Therefore, it depends on how long this public outrage lasts. With Imran Khan’s history of tenacity, the likelihood is that it may continue to unnerve the government and early elections may be the only possibility.
Depth of resilience – Despite the claims of not taking revenge, the Sharif family is famous for doubling down on the opposition. The Model Town incident is enough to show how the most minor resistance like a barricade can get 100 people shot in daylight. With Rana Sanaullah as Minister of Interior, the ability to sustain resistance will be tested. If PTI can weather this storm, they will win even more public support and electoral votes.
Outmaneuvering the bluff game – Perhaps the single most important point is how the establishment approaches this tussle. If they support and sponsor this fragmented government, early elections may not be possible. Even if early elections are held, PTI will find it difficult to break through the systemic design that the establishment will draw for a pre-determined result. Although the Chief of Army Staff has admitted that Imran Khan is popular and is likely to win the majority, this statement itself is loaded with multiple interpretations.

Eventually, it is the public that can outperform the best of engineered internal and external plots. The odds are heavily against PTI. With the biggest superpower and the local power wielders against PTI, it will take a lot to keep going. But then never in the history of this country has there been such spontaneous outpouring of Pakistanis. London and Paris have merged into Karachi and Lahore. These visuals and voices have the power to overpower the power of the super and local powers.

The writer is a columnist, consultant, coach, and an analyst