KARACHI: Pakistan’s top exploration and production companies are on track to post a strong rebound in fourth-quarter earnings for fiscal year 2026, according to separate previews released by two Karachi-based brokerages.
Both firms pointed to elevated global oil prices and stronger local hydrocarbon output as the main drivers behind the expected upswing.
Insight Securities analyst Asim Hassan forecast that combined profitability across his firm’s four-stock exploration and production universe, Oil & Gas Development Co., Pakistan Petroleum Ltd., Mari Petroleum Co. and Pakistan Oilfields Ltd., would climb 25% from a year earlier and 17% from the prior quarter.
He attributed the growth to what he described as an elevated oil price environment amid heightened geopolitical tension, along with improved production during the April-to-June quarter.
JS Global analyst Wadee Zaman reached a similar conclusion, projecting a 25% year-over-year increase in cumulative earnings for the same four companies. Zaman tied the gain to a 51% year-over-year rise in oil prices and higher hydrocarbon volumes. He noted that Arab light crude averaged above $100 a barrel during the quarter, a 51% jump from a year earlier and a 29% increase from the previous quarter.
Company Forecasts Show Broad Agreement, Some Gaps
Both brokerages expect Oil & Gas Development, the sector’s largest firm, to report the steepest sequential improvement. Hassan estimated fourth-quarter earnings per share of 13 rupees, a 33% increase from the prior quarter, driven by higher oil prices and increased production.
He said revenue was likely to rise 56% from the previous quarter, though exploration expenses were expected to nearly double because of dry-well costs tied to the Saidpur-1 and Chak 203-1 wells and heavier seismic activity. Zaman’s estimate was close, at 12.47 rupees per share, which he said would mark a 33% increase from a year earlier on the back of a 52% jump in net sales.
For Pakistan Petroleum, Hassan projected earnings per share of 9.7 rupees, up 27% from the previous quarter, with revenue rising 37% to roughly 83.4 billion rupees; he flagged a dry-well charge linked to the Taban East X-1 well as a drag on the results. Zaman’s forecast of 9.56 rupees per share was described as a 44% increase from a year earlier, supported by a 35% rise in net sales.
Mari Petroleum was the outlier in both previews, with each brokerage expecting earnings to soften. Hassan forecast earnings per share of 14 rupees, down 21% from the prior quarter, which he attributed to a lower effective tax rate recorded in the preceding period rather than any deterioration in operations.
Zaman’s estimate of 14.91 rupees per share implied a 5% annual decline and a 15% sequential drop, which he linked to the normalization of the company’s tax rate after it stood at just 1% in the third quarter, compared with 13% a year earlier.
For Pakistan Oilfields, Hassan projected earnings per share of 29.5 rupees, up 7% sequentially on a 25% rise in topline. Zaman’s figure of 29.70 rupees per share was framed as a 13% annual gain tied to a 50% increase in net sales.
Dividend expectations from the two brokerages were largely aligned, with both projecting payouts of 6 rupees per share from Oil & Gas Development and 3.5 rupees per share from Pakistan Petroleum. Mari Petroleum was seen paying 14 rupees per share by both firms, while the two diverged slightly on Pakistan Oilfields, with Hassan projecting a 55-rupee payout and Zaman forecasting 60 rupees per share.
Zaman also pointed to a specific operational catalyst behind the sector’s production growth: the ramp-up of the Baragzai field, in which Oil & Gas Development holds a 65% working interest and Pakistan Petroleum holds 30%. He said the field added roughly 5,000 barrels of oil per day and helped push overall sector oil and gas output up 25% and gas production up 14% from a year earlier.
Both reports carried standard disclaimers noting that the estimates reflect the respective research departments’ independent views and are not to be relied upon as investment advice.
