• The US ambassador to Russia told the sources about how difficult it is to deal with the Kremlin.
• The US ambassador spoke with Russian authorities about preventing war.
• Vladimir Putin wasn’t interested in negotiating before the war, the US ambassador says.

The former US ambassador to Russia has told the sources about how difficult it is to deal with the Kremlin and why President Vladimir Putin will not back down in Ukraine.

In the run-up to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, John Sullivan was America’s man in Moscow.

The former US ambassador was the one who spoke with Russian authorities about preventing war, but “there was no engagement,” he added.

“They demanded security guarantees for Russia but wouldn’t talk constructively about security for Ukraine. They never moved beyond their talking points… it was a charade.”

When I ask whether the US should work harder at continuing those conversations to try to end the conflict, he tells me that President Vladimir Putin “wasn’t interested in negotiating before the war. He’s still not interested in negotiating”.

Global support for arming Ukraine

Instead, the Biden administration has concentrated on mobilizing global support for arming Ukraine and condemning Russia, while also providing billions of dollars in weapons to the country.

Mr. Putin reiterated in a speech on Tuesday that the West began the war, that it was using Ukraine to inflict a “strategic defeat” on Moscow, and that Russia, not Ukraine, was battling for its own existence.

Despite the shortcomings of Moscow’s self-proclaimed special military operation, Mr. Sullivan believes the Kremlin’s stated goals remain the same: to “de-Nazify” and “demilitarise” Ukraine. He sees that as “removing the government in Kyiv and subjugating the Ukrainian people”.

This is part of a vision that President Putin has outlined to re-gather the Russian peoples that were separated by the collapse of the Soviet Union.

“He can’t have a democratically elected government, particularly one led by President [Volodymyr] Zelensky, in Kyiv,” says Mr. Sullivan. “He will never be satisfied as long as that government exists because he considers it a threat to Russia and to his vision of this larger Russian state he’s trying to create.”

So what, then, would it take for Mr. Putin to stop the war?

“He has to be convinced that he can’t win,” says Mr. Sullivan. “He’s going to double down until he’s convinced that there’s just no way he can win. I’m not sure how significant the battlefield setbacks have to be for him to reach that point, but he’s nowhere near that today.”

 Long-time perspective

Mr. Sullivan thinks the Russian leader has a long-time perspective, and “a vision for what he wants to accomplish that he will not give easily”.

Mr. Sullivan, on the other hand, believes that one of Mr. Putin’s strategic blunders has been alienating the Slavic nation of 44 million people.

“The Ukrainian people aren’t going to forgive and forget,” he says. “Even if President Zelenksyy wanted to end the war, wanted to make territorial concessions, basically wanted to surrender, the Ukrainian people wouldn’t let him.”

With such a military, political, and ideological stalemate, the United States must be prepared for a lengthy conflict.

President Joe Biden demonstrated America’s commitment by paying a surprise visit to Kyiv on the anniversary of the invasion, but Mr Sullivan believes the issue will not be resolved this year.

“Beyond that, I don’t know,” he says. “But [Mr. Putin] doesn’t want an off-ramp. The goals of this special military operation will be achieved. He says that all the time.”

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