The Doha rendezvous

US urges the Taliban to honor Doha accord while also highlighting the growing ISKP threat

During their recent talks in Qatar’s capital, the US had once urged the Afghan Taliban to implement the Doha Agreement in its true sense while also calling for joint efforts against the rising threat of the Islamic State Kho-rasan Province (ISKP).

The Afghan Taliban – who refer to themselves as the Islamic Emirates of Afghanistan – were, however, not willing to accept any assistance or joint ventures against the ISKP, reiterating that they have the capacity of countering any threat from the terror outfit.

Representatives of the Islamic Emirate ofAfghanistan, led by the interim Foreign Minister Mullah Amir Khan Muttaqi visited Qatar earlier this month to attend a series of meetings with diplomats and other representatives of several European states and other countries and the Qatari officials.

Still, the most important meetings the Taliban foreign minister had in Doha in his week-long stay was with the US officials. Muttaqi met with US Special  Representative for Afghanistan Tom West on December 2 in what was tagged as the second round  US-Taliban talk post the US withdrawal.

According to ANI, the Afghan delegation asked the US administration to unfreeze Kabul’s financial assets. The US froze over $9 billion of Afghanistan after the Taliban took over Kabul on August 15 and announced the reestablishing of the Islamic Emirate government which was toppled after the US-led invasion of the country in the wake of September 11, 2001 attacks.

The freezing of the assets, however, resulted in what is now termed as possibly the biggest humanitarian crisis with almost 1millionAfghan children on the verge of dying of malnutrition.

According to sources privy to the meeting, the US linked the release of the money with certain condtions agreed upon in the historic Doha Agreement signed between the US and the Taliban on February 29, 2020 to pave the way for the US withdrawal.

According to the US offials, the Taliban have not implemented the conditions with regard to women rights, girls’ education and an inclusive government among others. The US, the European Union and al- most all other nations around the world believe that the Taliban have not been able to deliver on their promises.

According to some reports, the US wanted to release $280 million of the frozen assets for emergency assistance. But it did not want to give the money to the Taliban. It wanted it to be spent by humanitarian organizations.

However, the Taliban did not agree to this claim and instead demanded the release of all frozen assets. The Taliban have also been repeatedly saying that they are working on fulfilling their promises.

Another matter that has popped up in every meeting between the two former enemies is the recognition of the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan. The Taliban have been asking the US to formally accept their government.

The Taliban are aware that a formal recognition by the US will pave the way for all other nations to accept their rule as legitimate, thus allowing a smooth inflow of foreign aid and humanitarian assistance, trade and return of international flights into the economically stressed country.

The US, however, is still reluctant to accept the Taliban. A source aware of the developments in the recent talks claimed that the US wants the Taliban to jointly work for eradicating the ISKP terrorist group. The ISKP has been gaining strength in Afghanistan since the US withdrawal and has claimed a number of deadly attacks on civilians and the Taliban forces.

The US is concerned that the ISKP could soon become strong enough to launch terrorist activities outside Afghanistan, targeting not just Afghanistan’s neighbours but also western countries.

However, the Taliban stated that they have the capacity of countering any threat from the terror outfit. The UN blacklist is apparently another matter that came under discussion in the recent meetings.

The Taliban are not happy with the list which imposes a travel ban on a number of its leaders, including some ministers and governors. They want the blacklist and all its restrictions abolished. However, no breakthrough could be made in the talks.

A brewing crisis

On November 12, a United Nations official stationed in Afghanistan set the alarm bells ringing. While talking to CNBC, UN Development Programme (UNDP) official Al Dardani said that “Afghanistan is probably facing the worst humanitarian disaster we’ve ever seen.”

According to Al Dardani, around 23 million people in Afghanistan are in a desperate need of food and that the $20 billion economy could shrink by $4 billion or more with 97% of the 38 million population at risk of sinking into poverty.

“We have never seen an economic shock of that magnitude and we have never seen a humanitarian crisis of that magnitude,” he said, adding that funding for the humanitarian crisis and for essential services was crucial to maintain lives and livelihood in the country.

This crisis was set off by the suspension of funding by mostly Western donors in the wake of the Afghan Taliban’s lightning takeover of Kabul on August 16.

The US, which made a hasty and chaotic with- drawal from Afghanistan at the end of its 20-year- long military campaign, also froze around $10 billion of the Afghan central bank held abroad – in a bid to stop the militants from accessing that money.

This suspension of funding and freezing of assets led to a collapse in public finances, and many workers stopped receiving salaries, which extended pressure on the Afghan banking system. According to the UNDP’s latest report issued on December 1, Afghanistan’s GDP could contract 20% within a year.

“The sudden dramatic withdrawal of international aid is an unprecedented fiscal shock,” UNDP Asia Director Kanni Wignaraja told AFP on Wednesday, as the agency released its Afghanistan Socio-Economic Outlook 2021-2022.

The report predicted that the economic contraction of around 20% of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) within a year, could “reach 30% in following years.” For decades now Afghanistan’s economy has been undermined by war and drought. But it was propped up by billions in international aid.

“It took more than five years of war for the Syrian economy to experience a comparable contraction. This has happened in five months in Afghanistan,” Wignaraja said.

Another UN source told the AFP that, “in terms of population needs and weakness of institutions, it is a situation never seen before. Even… Yemen, Syria, Venezuela don’t come close.”

Previously, international aid represented 40% of Afghanistan’s GDP and financed 80% of its budget. But even reinstating aid now, while crucial, would be a “palliative” move, Wignaraja said. “[What Afghans need are] jobs, being able to learn, be able to earn and to be able to live with dignity and safety.”

The report also warned that depriving women of paid work in Afghanistan could fuel a GDP drop of up to five per cent, representing a loss of wealth of $600 million to $1 billion.

The Taliban have allowed only a portion of female civil servants – those working in education
and health – to return to work, and have been vague on what the rules will be in the future. In the past, they banned women from working.

“Women constitute 20% of formal employment, and their jobs are vital to mitigate the economic catastrophe in Afghanistan,” Wignaraja told AFP. The damage “will be determined by the extent of enforcement or the delay,” the report noted.

In addition, there is a loss in consumption – women who no longer work no longer have a salary and can no longer buy as much as before to feed or equip their homes – which could reach $500 million per year, according to the UNDP. Afghanistan “cannot afford to forfeit this”, Wignaraja said.

Young Afghan women must also be able to continue post-secondary education, Wignaraja said.

That means any education that “will help them to contribute as they can and wish as doctors, nurses, teachers, engineers, civil servants or to run their businesses and build back the country.”

The worst victim of this economic crisis is, however, the children.

The UN’s children’s agency Unicef estimates that some 3.2 million Afghan children under the age of five will suffer from malnutrition this winter. A million of them could die in the absence of intervention.

After 40 years of war, malnutrition is a perennial problem in Afghanistan, exacerbated in recent years by severe droughts. Since the Taliban takeover, un-employment has shot up, food prices have surged and suffering is visible across the country, particularly in camps for displaced people.

In view of the situation, the UN appealed to the world community to donate a record $41 billion to provide life-saving assistance next year to 183 million people worldwide caught up in conflict and poverty, led by a tripling of its programme in Afghanistan.

In a report to donors, the world body said: “Without sustained and immediate action, 2022 could be catastrophic.” It said Afghanistan, Syria, Yemen, Ethiopia and Sudan are the five major crises requiring the most funding, topped by $4.5 billion sought for Afghanistan where “needs are skyrocketing.”

Meanwhile, Pakistan, in addition to giving an assistance of Rs5 billion, last week hosted an extraordinary session of the Organization of Islamic Cooperation (OIC) Council of Foreign Ministers, a conference which pledged money and food aid for Afghanistan.