German investors less pessimistic as Ukraine war rumbles on

Confidence among German financial players recovered slightly in May according to a closely watched survey released on Tuesday, as they dealt with the fallout from Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

The ZEW institute’s economic expectations index for the next six months rose to minus 34.3 points in May, up from minus 41 points in April.

The economic barometer fell by 93.6 points in March this year, the most since the coronavirus pandemic’s outbreak.

The indicator lost 58.2 points in March 2020, when lockdowns forced factories and offices to shut and brought international travel to a standstill.

The current level was still “relatively negative”, ZEW president Achim Wambach said in a statement.

Surveyed panellists “still expect a deterioration of the situation, but of a more limited intensity”, he said.

Sweeping coronavirus-related lockdowns in key market and manufacturing hub China were a “heavy burden” for Germany’s export-oriented economy, Wambach added.

Investors’ assessments of the current economic conditions fell by 5.7 points to minus 36.5 points, the third consecutive fall since the outbreak of the war in Ukraine.

By contrast, their opinion on the outlook for the economy increased by 13.5 points in May to minus 29.5 points.

The indicator’s “mini-increase” did not inspire much optimism, according to LBBW bank analyst Jens-Oliver Niklasch.

Uncertainty remained “too high,” he said, as the Ukrainian conflict drives inflation to multi-year highs and Chinese lockdowns threaten to exacerbate global trade disruptions.