Food inflation is expected to accelerate this summer, with prices remaining high

• According to one forecast, food prices will remain persistently high this summer as a poisonous mix of headwinds, including the war in Ukraine, combine to exacerbate the overall cost of living crisis.
• According to the most recent official numbers from the Office for National Statistics, the rate of grocery inflation is just under 7%.

Food inflation is going to intensify throughout the summer, an industry group has warned, with higher prices projected to persist until the middle of next year.

The Institute of Grocery Distribution predicts that food inflation will reach 15% in the next months, with meat, cereal, dairy, fruit, and vegetable goods leading the way.

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According to the survey, the average monthly grocery purchase for a family of four will be £439 in January next year, up from £396 in the same month this year.

As a result of the greater cost of living crisis, it predicted an increase in already visible “food stress” among the poorest.

Some of the biggest rises have been in the cost of meat that relies on wheat for nourishment, such as poultry, because of the surge in global wheat prices triggered by Russia’s war in Ukraine.

Brexit and supply chain disruption connected to COVID are also influencing prices, the firm claimed.

According to the most recent official numbers from the Office for National Statistics, the rate of grocery inflation is just under 7%.

There is mounting evidence that shoppers’ food buying patterns are fast shifting as the cost of living rises.

The most recent known gauge of inflation was in April, and it stands at a 40-year high of 9%.

Although food has contributed to growing family expenditures, the most recent figure was largely due to an unexpected increase in the energy price cap that month.

The Bank of England anticipates that inflation will exceed 10% later this year, when the next increase, which is likely to add more than £800 to a typical annual gas and electricity bill, takes effect in October.

In recent weeks, fuel prices have set new highs on a daily basis.

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James Walton, the chief economist of the Institute of Grocery Distribution, said: “From our analysis, we’re unlikely to see the cost of living pressures lessening very soon.

“We’re already seeing households skip meals, which is an obvious sign of food stress.”