Amid tensions in Indo-Pacific, joint US-Indonesia military exercise may expand to 14 nations

The Indonesian and US military are expanding their yearly bilateral exercises to include 14 countries, according to a news release issued by the Indonesian Army on Thursday.

From August 1 to 14, troops from the United Kingdom, Australia, Japan, Malaysia, Singapore, and Canada will participate in the Garuda Shield 2022 exercises, according to the army. Live-fire exercises, special operations, and aviation components, among other disciplines, will be included in the 16th edition of the war games, according to the statement.

The expansion of the exercises comes at a time when tensions in the area are simmering, with analysts claiming that the decision indicates Indonesia has moved closer to the US in terms of military cooperation than China.

Last year’s Garuda Shield comprised two US Army divisions, totaling around 1,000 soldiers, as well as their Indonesian counterparts in the largest edition of the war games to date, according to the US Army.

“The two-week Garuda Shield joint-exercise continues to reinforce the US-Indonesia Major Defense Partnership and advances collaboration in support of a free and open Indo-Pacific region,” the US Army stated in a statement ahead of the drills last year.

The number of troops from each of the 14 countries participating in this year’s Garuda Shield has yet to be determined by Indonesia.

The exercises elicited no immediate response from the US military or the US Embassy in Jakarta.

Disputes in the South China Sea

Indonesia is located in the southern reaches of the South China Sea, which has seen a flurry of military activity in recent years as China fortified disputed islands and the United States and its allies challenged those claims.

China’s state-run Global Times tabloid accused US Adm. John Aquilino, the head of the US Indo-Pacific Command, of trying to replicate the Ukraine crisis in the Asia-Pacific by mobilizing allies, partners, and other countries in the region to challenge China in March.

According to analysts, Indonesia has long avoided taking sides in the South China Sea issue between the United States and China.

They do highlight, however, that Beijing has become more forceful in pushing its claims near the Natuna Islands in an area that is both within Indonesia’s Exclusive Economic Zone and also within China’s “nine-dash line,” which claims authority over practically all of the South China Sea.

According to Col. Frega Wenas Inkiriwang, commander of the North Jakarta Military District and lecturer at the Indonesian Defense University, China’s current behavior is increasing the risk of conflict in the region as countries, including Indonesia, beef up their military presence around the Natuna Islands.

But don’t expect Jakarta to publicly criticize Beijing, according to Collin Koh, a research fellow at Singapore’s S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies.

“It will avoid megaphone diplomacy and publicly challenging… China over the South China Sea concerns,” Koh said, “but it will take moves that delicately convey to Beijing — and back home to the domestic audience — its willingness to preserve its national interests.”

The expansion of the Garuda Shield war games is “particularly remarkable,” according to him, because “Indonesia is typically cautious about signaling when it comes to sensitivities around the South China Sea issues” and its ties with the US and China.

“Clearly, Indonesia wants to engage in external balancing in the South China Sea while also using it as a platform to portray its stature and influence in international military diplomacy,” Koh added.

Indonesia and China used to hold joint military exercises called “Sharp Knife,” according to Frega, but the last one was in 2014.

Now, he claims, Indonesia is definitely closer to the US than China in terms of military cooperation.

Indonesia has historically had close military connections with Japan and Australia, according to Frega, so their involvement in Garuda Shield 2022 should not come as a surprise.

However, he predicted that news of the August exercises would be “received uncomfortably” in Beijing because Japan and Australia, like the US, have been harsh critics of China’s conduct in the South China Sea.