Boris will survive despite losing 800 council seats, poll suggests

BORIS Johnson, pollsters believe, will avoid a damaging public reaction over the Partygate scandal in next month’s municipal elections.

However, on May 5, the Conservatives are anticipated to suffer a series of crushing setbacks, losing 800 seats across the country. If accurate, this would imply a 5% Labour swing, sufficient to place Sir Keir Starmer in Downing Street at the next general election. Labour would be Parliament’s largest party but would fall 15 seats short of a majority.

If there is no widespread voter response to Downing Street’s violation of the Covid rules, it would help Mr Johnson shore up his position as Prime Minister ahead of the next general election.

Martin Baxter, CEO of Electoral Calculus, said: “If the actual results are similar to our predictions, then Boris Johnson will be spared new backbench pressure to unseat him.

“Although the Conservatives will lose some ground, it doesn’t look like a catastrophic defeat, and that is a good result for them after their poor poll ratings post-Partygate.”

Over 5,000 council seats are up for grabs in 197 councils across the country, the majority of which are Labour-controlled.

Calculate the Electoral College and Discover Between April 4 and 8, Now surveyed 12,115 residents of 201 district and unitary councils, following many Partygate revelations but before Mr Johnson was penalised.

While the Tories are expected to lose 800 councillors, just a few councils may escape their control. They may even gain some, according to the report, including Elmbridge, Havering, Pendle, the Vale of Glamorgan, and Worcester.

Nick Fox, of Find Out Now, said: “We’re expecting the results to confirm the headway that Keir Starmer has been making in the polls.

“Whether this is the end of the Partygate scandal or we are seeing its effects temporarily diffused by the conflict in Ukraine remains to be seen.”

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