Climate change: a 50/50 risk of exceeding the 1.5°C warming limit

The chances of exceeding a critical global warming threshold have increased dramatically.

There is now a 50/50 possibility that the planet will warm by more than 1.5°C in the next five years.

Such an increase would only be transitory.

But, scientists are concerned about the overall trend of temperatures.

They predict that the years 2022-2026 will be the warmest on record.

Global temperatures have risen in lockstep with the rapid accumulation of warming gases in the atmosphere during the last three decades.

In 2015, the global average temperature for the first time surpassed 1°C above pre-industrial values.

It is considered to be temperature recorded in the middle of the nineteenth century.

That was also the year that world leaders signed the Paris Climate Agreement.

Governments reaffirmed their commitment to keeping “1.5C alive” during COP26 in Glasgow last November.

Global temperatures have been at or near 1°C for the previous seven years.

2016 and 2020 practically tied as the warmest years on record.

According to scientists, the world is already witnessing huge repercussions due to global warming of about 1 degree Celsius.

The record wildfires in North America last year or the severe heatwaves currently affecting India and Pakistan.

The possibilities of momentarily exceeding 1.5 degrees Celsius in one of the next five years, according to World Meteorological Organization (WMO).

Temperatures would be between 1.1 and 1.7 degrees Celsius higher than pre-industrial levels between 2022 and 2026.

According to the Met Office, the chances of exceeding 1.5 degrees Celsius in any given year are roughly 48 percent.

Or close to 50:50.

Climbing above 1.5C for a year is not the same as a persistent rise in which temperatures do not dip below this level.

If it is exceeded in the following five years, it is likely to go below 1.5C once more.

However, complacency is no longer an option.

The researchers anticipate that one of the next years would certainly shatter the record for warmest year.