Keir Starmer’s moment of drama is an unexpected venture

Keir Starmer has rarely sparked such a frenzy in national politics before. His broadcast remark that he would resign if Durham police fined him for violating COVID guidelines was a powerful moment, and an unexpected risk for someone who colleagues describe to as “cautious Keir.”

Whatever the conclusion of the probe, it will have major ramifications. If the police investigation clears him, he has created a moral line in the sand that Boris Johnson stands on the wrong side of.

Starmer is aiming to position himself as a politician who the people can trust to speak the truth and follow the laws of society by contrasting his own behavior with that of the prime minister.

If Durham police find him in violation of the rules and he resigns, he will demonstrate that the Labor Party believes politicians must be accountable. When compared to Johnson, who has refused to retire despite a police COVID fine, the discrepancy will be obvious once more.

Johnson is still facing the possibility of more fines from the cops. And if the prime minister persists in refusing to step down despite further sanctions, when Starmer has already done so for minor rule violations that he did not commit, the prime minister’s position will become increasingly unsustainable.

Starmer’s comment is clearly calculated to make him look bold and get him plaudits for being decisive — two attributes he is not known for.

Some supporters feel it would have been hard for him to do anything else while Labour MPs were bombarded with inquiries about his position on a daily basis, diverting their attention away from the prime minister’s misdeeds.

There is, however, a counter-argument. Some Labor insiders were skeptical that he would even mention retiring before it was required, fearing that it would prompt people to write him off too soon.

There are also concerns that if Durham police falsify their conclusions, as they did with former No 10 assistant Dominic Cummings, it will put Starmer in a terrible position. If they publish a statement indicating he may have broken the rules, but the situation is too historic to levy a fine, Starmer will be under pressure to follow the spirit of his remark.

It’s unclear who else will benefit if Starmer’s gambit backfires, resulting in his resignation. The loss of someone they feel was repairing Labor’s support after a disastrous 2019 election result and dealing with the antisemitism problem that had haunted the party will be devastating to Starmer’s greatest supporters.

Others in Labor, however, will be thrilled, including those who wished for a more charismatic leader  as well as others who hate his choice to move Labor’s policies away from the Corbyn period.

On the other hand, numerous Conservative MPs stated on Monday that No 10 and the Conservative Party headquarters should be cautious about what they ask for. They would claim a victory if Starmer left, but some Conservatives are concerned that he may be replaced by someone more aggressive, who would be even further apart from Corbyn’s leadership.

The move would also increase the pressure on Johnson to follow suit, despite his dislike of feeling obligated to do the right thing by others.

Starmer’s team is bringing evidence to Durham police that they claim will establish he and his colleagues did nothing illegal.

The destiny of the Labor leader and his deputy is now in the hands of the police, which may make officers think twice about fining either of them. So far, the only political pressure has come from a small group of Tory MPs and the Daily Mail, who have both demanded action.

The focus is still on Johnson – for now – with the possibility of additional fines in the coming days and more clear-cut evidence of partying in No 10 than what occurred in Durham.