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Pakistan is, at the moment, facing a fresh wave of terrorism after a break of a few years of relative peace. Experts on security-related issues attribute it to the reunification of different militant groups in the region.

Pakistan was hoping a change of rule in Afghanistan would bring peace in the country and disarm and disband the militant groups who have been involved in terrorism there for many years.

However, the reality on the ground proved to be quite the opposite, as the change of rule in Afghanistan seems to have strengthened these militant groups even more. And the fallout of that can be witnessed in neighbouring Pakistan.

The Pak Institute for Peace Studies (PIPS) reported that just in January, 12 terrorist attacks had already taken place in the country, in which 13 people were killed and 43 injured. Of these attacks, 10 were claimed by the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), and Baloch nationalist insurgents took credit for the other two.

According to the PIPS’ compiled data, which has been exclusively shared with Bol News, in two attacks in Bannu, which the banned TTP claimed responsibility for, security/law enforcement agencies were specifically targeted and two people were killed. And in another attack in Bolan during the same period, railway tracks were targeted by the Baloch Liberation Army (BLA), in which five persons were injured.

The TTP also claimed responsibility for the attack on law enforcement agencies in Islamabad in which there were two casualties, and for another  attack on law enforcement agencies in Karachi which resulted in injuries to one person. Meanwhile, a terrorist attack in Lahore, claimed by the Baloch Nationalist Army as their handiwork, took the lives of three people and injured 30.

In an attack in Lakki Marwat by the TTP, two people were killed, and the TTP’s attack on pro-government tribesmen and law enforcement personnel in North Waziristan cost three people their lives and injured four.

According to PIPS, 21 terrorist attacks had taken place in Pakistan in December 2021, marking an increase of about 24 percent from the previous month. These attacks claimed 27 lives – compared to 20 in the month before – and injured 42 others. Among those 27 killed in terrorist attacks in December were 17 personnel from security and law enforcement agencies (6 policemen, and 11 army soldiers) and nine civilians, alongside one suicide bomber.

And as the month-long ceasefire it had announced ended on December 8, the TTP once again stepped up its terrorist activities, mainly in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. The group was believed to be involved in most of the nine attacks recorded in the province during December. These attacks claimed 14 lives and injured nine others. Four incidents of election-related political violence also took place in different districts of KP on the occasion of the first phase of local body elections, which claimed five lives and wounded six others.

According to Abdullah Khan, the MD of the Pakistan Institute for Conflict and Security Studies (PICSS), the reunification of different militant factions of the TTP, and the assembling of different militant groups in Balochistan under the umbrella of the Baloch Raaji Ajoi Sangar (BRAS), is the main reason for the recent upward trend in terrorist activities in Pakistan.

Khan disclosed that while attempts were being made to reintegrate the TTP, efforts to form a united front of Baloch militant groups fighting against the Pakistani state were also in progress. The BRAS was formed in November 2018, the same year that Mullah Fazlullah was killed. And Khan warned of an ominous portent: the year 2022 may see even more attacks by all shades of militant groups. The Sindu Desh Liberation Army is a new entrant to this arena, and has reportedly joined BRAS and claimed responsibility for attacks in interior Sindh. Resultantly, while the tribal districts of KP and Balochistan are already facing serious challenges, interior Sindh is also likely to  prove to be another headache for the country.

Abdullah Khan maintained there has been an exponential increase in violence in Pakistan since the occupation of Kabul by the Taliban in August 2021. He said 45 attacks were reported in Pakistan in August 2021 —  the highest number of terrorist activities in a month compared with any other month since 2017. He contended that the occupation of Kabul by the Taliban has brought the TTP more freedom to conduct terrorist activities in Pakistan than it had in the past.

According to Khan, local commanders and leaders of the new Afghan government have very strong and deep-rooted ties with the TTP.  He said the latter had provided Taliban leaders and fighters shelter and support when it was facing severe US military pressure in Afghanistan. And, he added, although the Afghan Taliban had never expressed any desire or intent to expand their military campaign outside Afghanistan, their strong bonding with the TTP leadership and fighters was perhaps underestimated in Islamabad.

Khan continued that initially, there was a general impression that with the Taliban ruling Afghanistan, the TTP and all anti-Pakistan elements hiding in Afghanistan would have no room to stay there. This impression was bolstered by Pakistan’s consistent diplomatic moves to urge the international community to engage with the new Afghan government. For its part, the PTI government was expecting that the new government in Afghanistan would reciprocate Pakistan’s efforts by ensuring those seeking to harm Pakistan in Afghanistan, would not be provided any support. But it soon realised that the Taliban leadership no longer enjoyed the full control over its local commanders as it had done in its previous tenure in power.

All this notwithstanding, Abdullah Khan expressed satisfaction with the government’s performance so far with regard to the 20 points of the National Action Plan (NAP). He said good work has been done on most of the NAP’s points.

Meanwhile, while commenting on the recent incidents of terrorism in Pakistan, the Chairman of the Institute of Policy Studies, Khalid Rahman stated that there is a need to understand the matter in both, its immediate and its larger context.

He contended that three characters play a very important role in the act of terrorism, including the operator, the facilitator who basically hires the services of the operator to carry out a specific terrorist activity, and lastly, the mastermind behind it. He said of these, the mastermind is the most important character, who for his own reasons, funds or manages the financial cost and supervises the entire process of the operation. According to Rahman, it is an open secret that the masterminds involved in more  recent terrorist activities in the country are not from Pakistan, and operate from outside of it. He said foreign agencies are also involved in this process. The TTP provides and facilitates the operators who are used in terrorist activities in Pakistan, he said.

Rahman continued that the security and patronage which the TTP has been receiving from Afghanistan over the past decade-and-a-half has changed somewhat since the change of command in Afghanistan, but the foreign masterminds who want to perpetuate unrest, chaos and fear in Pakistan have not been put out of business yet.

The fact is, that by ignoring this crucial aspect of policy-making and by targeting the operators or the facilitators alone will not achieve the desired results, he said. He added that while forming a policy in this connection, the narrative which paves the way for a continuous supply of operators to TTP-like groups, also needs to be addressed.

According to Rahman, Pakistan’s policies are in denial of its sovereignty and this factor is exploited by extremist groups. He maintained that this factor is not only causing political turmoil and economic stagnation, but it is also generating ideological and moral issues of identity in the country. He said issues like it create an atmosphere of anxiety and turmoil in which elements like the TTP succeed in attracting a number of young people.

Meanwhile in Afghanistan, Rahman contended, the Taliban are facing issues of their own internal solidarity. They feel feel they cannot deal harshly with those who sided with them when they were at war against foreign forces. Hence their leniency with those factions of the TTP, which particularly supported them by joining the resistance the were engaged in against the United States. All of which promises little peace in the region in the foreseeable future.