The Dot Ball Debate

As the Pakistan Super League (PSL7) has progressed, the dot ball debate has come to the fore, once again. The debate where the quantity of dot balls in an innings is narrated as one of the most critical factors in the outcome of a game. The debate is not new. In the context of T20 Cricket, this narration has already become a popular belief where dot balls are considered as an indicator of either lack of intent or competence of a batting side and an indicator of potency of a bowling side. As such, playing dot balls is widely considered as the key performance indicator of a batting and bowling team.

This popular belief, on the other hand, contradicts with some other widely accepted thoughts. Such as playing on merit, that is, giving respect to good deliveries instead of giving away your wicket. Even if it is a shortened format, it still gives some allowance to play a few deliveries to settle yourself in and to make up for it later. These thoughts are usually the go-to argument especially while analysing if there is a collapse analysis.

Although popular but it is still a subjective argument that warrants an objective assessment. What else can do a better job of converting a subjective argument into an objective inference than our dear friend, Data. So let’s ask Mr. Data to validate these arguments based on happenings in PSL7 till the end of Karachi leg – the halfway mark in the league stage where all teams have played each other once and have played five matches each.

Dot Balls played

As the teams have not faced equal number of balls, comparing teams on the basis of total number of dot balls played would be futile. More appropriate would be to compare their dot ball frequency – that is, on an average, after how many balls a team played a dot ball.

Quetta Gladiators – currently ranked 4^th in the points table – have played the dot balls most frequently. Peshawar Zalmi and Karachi Kings – currently ranked 5^th and 6^th, respectively, in the points table – are not far away.

At the other end of the spectrum, Lahore Qalandars – currently ranked 3^rd in the points table – have played the dot balls far less frequently than any other team. Islamabad United – currently ranked 2^nd in the points table – stands second in this list as well. However the current table toppers, Multan Sultans, stand 3^rd in this listing.

Table 1.1: Dot Ball Ratio of all teams in PSL7 till the end of Karachi Leg

The equated Dot Ball comparison does not mirror the current points table standings. That disparity triggers subsequent questions: Do the dot balls carry no impact? If they do, how and how much?

Let’s continue our quest and take these thoughts to Mr. Data and see what he has to offer in this discovery.

Dot balls bowled
Cricket is a game of two equally important disciplines – batting and bowling. It would be logically incorrect to have one of those to have a direct impact on the overall outcome without giving due credence to the other discipline – bowling, in this case. On that thought, let’s have a look at the dot balls bowled by each team in PSL7 till the end of Karachi leg.

Chart 1.2: Dot Ball Bowled Ratio by all teams in PSL7 till the end of Karachi Leg

Peshawar Zalmi has forced the dot balls least frequently – they have bowled a dot ball after every 3.46 deliveries. Noticeably, Multan Sultans, the current table-toppers stand 4^th in this comparison – even lower than Karachi Kings who are currently the 6^th in the points table.

This comparative listing does not mirror the points table standing either.

Net Dot Balls Ratio

The ultimate objective in a game of cricket is not to hit any particular numerical target but to be numerically better than the opponent. Due to varying factors, the numerical targets also differ in each game – for instance, a team can be a winner both by scoring 120 or 180 as long as it does relatively better than the opponent. Hence, it is pertinent to compare the net effect of dot balls batted and dot balls bowled by a team.

In terms of dots balls played versus dot balls bowled, Lahore Qalandars have done much better than all other teams. They have played a dot ball after every 3.43 deliveries (best) and have bowled a dot ball after every 2.79 deliveries (second-best) which gives them a net difference of +0.64 – far superior than -0.14 of the table toppers, Multan Sultans. But they are still 3^rd on points table.

On the other hand, Peshawar Zalmi has the worst net difference, even worse than Karachi Kings, ranked at the bottom on the points table. Even this comparison does not mirror the points table.

 “No conclusive evidence to overturn the call. Can I have another angle please?”

 Boundaries hit

Before jumping to any conclusions, Mr. Data suggested to have a similar comparison of boundaries. So, let’s have a quick look at that as well.

Clearly, Karachi Kings have struggled the most to find boundaries this season; they have hit a boundary after every 6.92 deliveries.

Not surprisingly, Islamabad United has cleared the ropes most frequently, hitting a boundary after every 4.49 deliveries.

Boundaries Conceded

Surprising for some, Karachi Kings have conceded the boundaries with least frequency. Their opponents scored a boundary off them after every 6.15 deliveries. Goes to show how good Kings have been with the ball but their struggle with the bat has nullified their performance with the ball.

Islamabad United and Lahore Qalandars – currently ranked 2^nd and 3^rd in the points table – have conceded boundaries with higher frequency than all other teams except Peshawar Zalmi – ranked 5^th in points table.

Net Boundary Ratio

Sultans lead the pack in terms of Net Boundary Ratio. They have managed to keep the balance of boundaries hit versus boundaries conceded in their favor by some distance.

Zalmi’s ratio is far worse than Karachi Kings. Considering boundary hitting proficiency of the teams does not match with their points table standing either.

Dot Balls to Boundary Ratio

Neither Dot Balls nor the Boundary hitting/conceding frequency highlighted direct linkage with points table. Before concluding, no harm having a look at the numbers from another angle. Instead of looking at frequency of dots or boundaries among the balls bowled or faced, let’s have a look at the dot ball to boundary ratio – that is, after how many dot balls a boundary has been conceded or scored by the teams.

Karachi Kings – currently ranked at the bottom in the points table – is not the worst ranked team in this table. It is Peshawar Zalmi – primarily because Peshawar has conceded boundaries more freely than any other team, while, although, Karachi Kings have struggled the most in hitting boundaries but they have been the best in terms of (not) conceding boundaries during this edition of PSL.

Quetta Gladiators stand 4^th and Islamabad United stands at 2^nd – same as points table.

Lahore Qalandars – ranked 3^rd in the points table – comes out at the best in this table. Although their strong bowling has conceded boundaries more freely than even Karachi, their net ratio is high primarily because of playing lowest number of dots for every boundary while batting.

Multan Sultans – the leader of the points table – stands third best in this table. Their standing reminds about the value of right balance in success. Their numbers are not the best in either scoring or conceding boundaries but their overall numbers are good enough to make them winners in all their contests at the halfway mark of PSL7

Takeaway

Number of dot balls played or conceded provides an inaccurate measure of teams’ performance. Boundaries are an equally important factor in a game of T20. Evaluation on the basis of dot balls only may lead to inaccurate conclusions.

Dot Balls to Boundary ratio is a much better method to evaluate a team’s output. For instance, 3 dots and 3 fours in an over or 4 dots and 2 sixes in an over will still produce an outcome that would be highly desirable by any batting team in any conditions. Still not identical with the points table but the closest, we have. Complimenting it with the analysis of everything in between – of dot and boundary – that is, frequency of singles and doubles would take the assessment even closer to the team’s standings. That’s what we will do the next time.

Author is a data-driven Cricket observer; reachable as krick3r on social media or his blog: krick3r.com