The March of the Aussies

The last time Australia toured Pakistan, they trounced a strong home side by an innings at Rawalpindi. What was most perturbing for Pakistanis at the time was that while the pair of Mushtaq Ahmed and Saqlain Mushtaq together bowled 82.5 overs in the match to concede 227 runs for four wickets (with left-arm spinner Mohammad Hussain taking 2-66 off 20), Australia’s second choice leg spinner Stuart McGill (Warne didn’t tour) returned with match figures of 9-113 off 43 overs. Literally, half the runs in half the overs for more than double the wickets compared to the world’s top two spinners playing on their home turf with one home umpire and no DRS at the time.

Australia then hung on for two draws to take the series 1-0 in what was their only Test series win in Pakistan since 1959.

As such any hopes that Pakistan enjoys a home advantage on specially prepared pitches may well sour once the game gets underway. Australians fight hard, not least because they prepare and practice hard to adapt to whatever conditions they are going to play in. Unlike the English and Kiwis, they grow up in stifling summers where temperatures can touch 43 degrees centigrade on a midsummer day. So a hot and sultry day, the sort they may find in Pakistan this March doesn’t quite affect them adversely.

One can also think that with the tourists attacking with their paceman, the heat will sap their strength and stamina. You can bury that theory. I remember well how, in draining heat and humidity, paceman Geoff Lawson toiled hard on the 1982 tour here to return with nine wickets in the series out of 24 Pakistan’s wickets that fell, in practically three innings by Pakistan as they won two Tests by 10 wickets and the other by an innings. That was more wickets than what Pakistani pacers took barring Imran (who took 13) but who all had 6 innings to bowl in.

Add to that the lurid memory of Glenn McGrath, Brett Lee and Andy Bichel sharing 12 wickets to skittle out Pakistan in Sharjah twenty years back for 59 and 53 (Australia made 310) in soaring temperatures that required the Aussie pacers to wear ice vests, and you should know what the Pakistani cricketers are up against.

Their batsmen don’t crumble easily either on slow and turning pitches; those continual collapses on the 1982 tour can be attributed to an inexperienced line-up consisting of recently debuted Australians touring without Greg Chappell.

Take their rearguard act in Dubai in October 2018, again in the searing desert heat, to save a Test. In the fourth innings, they batted out a day and a half to close the Test on 362-8, as Usman Khawaja faced 302 balls to score 141 and Tim Paine finished with an unbeaten 61 off 194 balls.

So yes, heat and slow pitches do not bite into their resolve, even though there have been the occasional day where they have wilted. That Pakistan has twice won Tests in Australia by an innings shows that it’s not because of alien conditions that they lose but because of quality cricket played against them.

Is Pakistan up to the Test?

As the Pakistani cricketers become used to playing at home, questions are nevertheless being asked about the future of some of them. While Asad Shafiq has in all probability batted his last for Pakistan, the selectors’ eyes are now focussing on Azhar Ali. If the loss of captaincy has been an indicator, his tentativeness in Bangladesh has quite confirmed that his days in the Test team are limited.

Azhar still has the tenacity that is needed at the Test level and for the longer format. But it is beginning to look a bit ugly. Though that hundred in England in 2020 that saved not just the match for Pakistan but his career as well is but a fading memory. A hard-fought 93 against New Zealand early last year gave signs of hope. But 115 runs against South Africa at home last year when Pakistan won both Tests handsomely again questioned his consistency. A hundred in Zimbabwe was attributed to a lacklustre bowling attack. Subsequent scores of 17, 23, 0, 22, 0, 24* in the West Indies and Bangladesh proved that. His last innings of 56 against Bangladesh came off 144 balls, much like a trek through the mud on way to nowhere.

Saud Shakeel and Kamran Ghulam are screaming for his place judging by their runs and the way they have scored them in the First-Class circuit. Imam-ul-Haq can well bat at No.3 as well though his weakness outside off stump keeps him out for now, though in the neighbourhood.

He is now coming up against one of the more penetrative pace attacks in the world. He may even be sent up to open if the coach wants to play a middle-order batter rather than bring in someone from outside to replace Abid Ali. How Azhar comes out from the first Test may well point to his short-term future.

The rest of the batting appear settled for at least the first two Tests as does most of the bowling group, except for maybe Hasan Ali. His form with the white ball at all levels has been dreadful over the last six months with consequences for the teams he has played in. Babar may, however, just try him once with the red ball on the ground where he took 11 wickets against South Africa last year.

The Pakistan Probable XI
So where can Pakistan pierce their batting defensives and how can they thwart their bowling attack? Countering their strong batting with spin is likely though with ICC Cricketer of the Year Shaheen Shah Afridi maturing, Pakistan have a penetrating pace attack.

Having said that, there will be the temptation to play Haris Rauf in place of Hasan. But having played only four First-Class matches across the last three seasons, his stamina and potency over three to four sessions is untested. The question is asked then as to why has he been added to the squad for the three Tests. Well, it could be to advise on weak links of the Australian batsmen against whom he’s played three seasons of Big Bash. Or he just might be asked to take the field against them and use that experience and knowledge himself.

Speaking of spin, Saqlain and Babar may well attack with the trio of left-armer Nauman Ali, off-spinner Sajid Khan and leggie Zahid Mahmood. That means depending on Rizwan and Hasan Ali to prop up the batting after the last specialist batsmen at No.5. A bit risky considering the Australian attack but with Ramiz Raja no doubt having a role in their strategic thinking, the aggressive and positive mindset of coach and captain is likely to be backed. Otherwise, Pakistan may drop a spinner and play the extra batsman or allrounder Faheem Ashraf.

What will be intriguing is to see whether Pakistan go with Shan Masood as the replacement for the recovering Abid Ali or push up Azhar to open with either Abdullah Shafique or Shan Masood. That means Saud Shakeel slides into the middle order with Babar stepping up to No.3. If they do indeed ask Azhar to open, then Faheem Ashraf can well play at No.7. In which case either Hasan or one of the three spinners sits out.

Breaking through the Australian batting

The tourists will be anticipating all these moves and simulating their response to each scenario. Australians however, normally plan the game based on their core strengths; the opposition’s weaknesses play a minor role in their strategy. Their game philosophy inculcated by Steve Waugh when he became a captain in 1999, has been to play aggressively in all situations, especially while batting. They almost always bat at over three runs an over now and very rarely set defensive fields even when the other side is batting for a declaration.

Leading the batting group from the top will be David Warner. The home team should not be overconfident in getting him early considering he averages far lower in Asia than his Test career average of over 47 and has a tenth of his Test centuries and fifties in this part of the world. It should be noted that he averaged 59.75 in the two Tests he played against Pakistan in the UAE three years back.

Yes, his Achilles heel is spin and Pakistan will attack him there. But they will note that of his 10 dismissals against Pakistan (against whom he averages over 100 in Tests) only three have been to spin, albeit all of them in UAE on pitches somewhat similar to what he will be playing on here.

Likewise, for his probable opening partner, Pakistani-born Usman Khawaja, assuming they don’t bring back Harris in his place for the opening Test. Once his romantic return to play a Test in the city of his birth has come and gone as soon as he first steps out at Rawalpindi, he will be tested against spin. Like Warner, he is considered weak against the turning ball, though that fighting 141 at Dubai might still haunt the hosts.

Pakistan will also have an eye out for Steve Smith, who did not play in the 2018 series in the UAE but when he had done that in 2014, had averaged 43.5 with a highest of 97. He averages 48 on Asian pitches (60 in India) and is regarded as the best Australian player against spin.

Travis Head had played his role with 72 in that fighting draw in Dubai and is coming on the back of the tremendous form in the Ashes series. Marcus Labuschagne may not have performed in that series and has no other experience of playing on Asian pitches, but the recent video of him practising on a Bunnings mat with small aluminium plates strapped on it shows how meticulously he is planning to battle the spin Pakistan lobs at him.

Countering the Australian bowling attack

Australia will no doubt be relying heavily on Nathan Lyon to make the best use of the Pakistani conditions as they did in the last series against Pakistan in the UAE where he claimed 12 wickets at an average of 32.08.

The right-arm offie averages even less than that overall in Asia. Australia may just bring in the left-arm spinner Ashton Agar to provide support though calling on Smith’s leg-spin instead is not totally off the table.

However, as always, it will be the pace trio that will be the main thrust of the attack. Here Mitchell Starc, Pat Cummins and Josh Hazelwood will be steaming in on all cylinders and Ashes new-found hero Scott Boland will be on standby.

Cummins of course will have a greater weight on his shoulders, leading the team as well as the attack, considering Starc is in his twilight zone. Cummins has a good record in Asia where he’s taken 14 wickets in just four Tests (in India and Bangladesh) at just under 30.

Effective too has been Starc with 37 wickets on Asian pitches at 27.94. But Pakistan batters have countered him well in the two series he’s played against them in the UAE. In those series, Starc managed to claim just six wickets in three Tests at a hefty average of 53.16 each.

Hazelwood is the most expensive of the three in Asian conditions, averaging over 35 for his 16 wickets in eight Tests. He is yet to play against Pakistan in Asia.

Pakistani vs other subcontinental pitches

Nevertheless, the Pakistani pitches, unlike rank turners of India, Sri Lanka and Bangladesh, have normally presented a more neutral front. They have aided pace more than spin. As Martin Smith, writing on the CA website back in January pointed out, “In the five Tests Pakistan have hosted since late 2019…..fast bowlers have taken 89 wickets at an average of just under 30 compared to 48 wickets from spinners at an average nudging 40.”

As commentator Bazid Khan, the former Pakistan Under-19 captain who has played on these surfaces all his life added there, “I think if you don’t have two world-class spinners, you don’t play them here.”

On the same website last week, Mark Waugh, who toured Pakistan twice in the 90s weighed in with his personal experiences of playing on the Pakistani pitches. Talking to Adam Burnett also for the CA website, he also feels that the tracks in Pakistan are in marked contrast to what is found elsewhere in the subcontinent.

“I always thought the wickets in Pakistan, they’re not like Indian wickets – they don’t break up, and they’re not as dusty,” Waugh said. “They don’t have a lot of grass on them but they’re quite hard, and reverse swing is as much, if not more of a danger than spin.

“In my era, they had Mushtaq (Ahmed) and Saqlain (Mushtaq), and a few other bits-and-pieces spinners, but I always thought the quick bowlers were equally as dangerous, if not more so, in Pakistan, with reverse swing and pace through the air. So it’s certainly different to India – it’s not as spin-oriented.”

Whatever the nature of the pitches, I believe that in the end, the honours will go to whichever of the two teams pass the mental test better. The pandemic has further raised the bar. Added to the security cordon, the players on both sides will be spending a lot of time with themselves. Some of the Pakistanis in fact will be coming straight from the PSL bubble into this one. Going out for dinner or the tourists even a half-day trip for sightseeing looks out of the question unless the PCB can arrange something incognito.

There will be a lot of pressure on the tourists. The Australians are also well aware that they haven’t won a series overseas since hopping across the Tasman Sea to New Zealand in 2016. So they have much to prove.

Add to that, the Kangaroos have just been scarred to some extent from the Langer affair. The interim coach also has a big ask to mentor Cummins, on his first tour as captain of the Test side. Both will be grateful that they have a full-strength Australia side. But both will also be aware that Pakistan on home turf often overcome the best the world has to offer.