Catholics now outnumber Protestants in Northern Ireland

• Census results show Northern Ireland now has more Catholics than Protestants for the first time.
• Change comes a century after Northern Ireland was established with the goal of maintaining a pro-British, Protestant majority.
• Census data from 2021 census shows 45.7% of respondents identify as Catholic or were raised Catholic, compared to 43.5% who identify as Protestant.

Northern Ireland now has more Catholics than Protestants for the first time, according to census results released on Thursday, a historic shift that some believe will help fuel support for the region’s independence from Britain and membership in a united Ireland.

The change comes a century after Northern Ireland was established with the goal of maintaining a pro-British, Protestant “unionist” majority as a counterweight to the newly independent, predominantly Catholic, Irish state to the south.

The population was roughly two-thirds Protestant and one-third Catholic at the time.

According to data from the 2021 census, 45.7% of respondents identified as Catholic or were raised Catholic, compared to 43.5% who identified as Protestant. Protestants outnumbered Catholics 48% to 45% in the previous census in 2011.

“Today’s results are yet another clear indication that historic change is taking place across this island,” said Michelle O’Neill, regional leader of the Irish nationalist Sinn Fein, which became the largest party in Northern Ireland’s devolved parliament for the first time this year, shocking many unionists.

Sinn Fein said the shift was yet another reason why a referendum on a united Ireland should be held. Since Britain’s decision to leave the EU in 2016, which 56% of Northern Irish voters opposed, the party has increased calls for a referendum.

“A referendum could happen sooner than we think,” said Mark Kelly, 50, a taxi driver from a nationalist area of Belfast whose WhatsApp group chats were buzzing with friends discussing the results.

A referendum on Irish unification is at the discretion of the British government, and polls consistently show a clear majority in favour of Ireland remaining a part of the United Kingdom.

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