US no longer a trend setter

There was a time when the United States, despite its numerous international follies, was considered a ‘force for good’ or a country which believes in humanitarian interventions and joint prosperity through free trade and navigation. Fast forward to 2022 and the picture could not be more starkly different. Under the Biden administration, the US is falling back on its historical trend setting momentum where despite all its hegemonic approaches, it still benefited from favourable approval ratings. Today, the country is not envied as a model of democracy, tolerance, plurality and coexistence, but rather as an instigator of conflict, a misfiring superpower with a proclivity towards demonising other states and a tendency to promote cold war binaries which divided countries on geopolitical lines. In 2022, Washington D.C. can no longer be considered a trend setter.

The reasons are obvious. While most would consider America’s declining economic clout and the rise of regional powers such as China to be the major cause of America’s plummeting approval ratings, certain variables suggest otherwise. The US is no longer leading the global world order which was one of the reasons as to why Washington D.C. was considered an unrivalled superpower. There are divisions in Europe with the rise of populist tendencies in Italy and Poland as well as Prime Minister Viktor Orban’s regime in Hungary, considering overt allegiance to America’s parochial interests to be a travesty for their own personal interests. While NATO remains a largely united force, its divisions have grown over how best to deal with Russia, Russian oil imports and the use of force by supplying Kiev with sophisticated weaponry for the Ukraine war. America has often prided itself as being a central pivot of Europe’s unified voice against despotism, tyranny and dictatorship particularly towards Russia and the Eastern axis, but that reputation continues to wane.

Similarly, in East Asia, multiple crises emerging across the South China Sea are widely attributed to America’s heavy military footprint and offensive doctrines. Take Taiwan, for example, where repeated visits by House Speakers and controversial lawmakers have only sown tensions and prevented the peaceful reunification of the island with mainland China. Even veteran diplomat Henry Kissinger called out the American strategy as lacking historical sensibility given the numerous joint communiques signed between China and the US. The 1972 Shanghai joint communique clearly outlines America’s pledge to respect the ‘One-China’ policy and refrain from undertaking action which undermines peace and stability in the region. The Biden administration, however, has chosen to ignore such historical precedents despite the fact that during the Kissinger and Richard Nixon eras attempts at thawing relations were largely successful. The strategy on Taiwan has been to provoke, instigate and arm secessionists which includes the Tsai Ing Wen government, much to the chagrin of Beijing.

The situation with North Korea is also not an exception. Not once has the Biden administration attempted to diffuse the Korean peninsula crisis through mediation or dialogue where even his predecessor, the white supremacist, isolationist Trump adopted a cosmetic, but conciliatory tone. Pyongyang continues to fire Intercontinental Ballistic Missiles (ICBMS) unabashedly which threatens regional stability and weakens the deterrence equation on the Korean peninsula. The nuclear umbrella which Seoul purportedly enjoys due to American assurances continues to remain fragile as the DPRK views any overture from the US with hostility and suspicion. While Pyongyang remains a pariah in the international community, the US is fomenting discord which is prompting even the most defiant of regimes to take aggressive measures. DPRK’s nuclear warnings which are treated as mere bluff by Washington are also weakening the non-proliferation regime which countries across the world have striven hard to uphold and solidify.

When it comes to the Ukraine war, the constant aggressive rhetoric of the US in the face of Russian imperialism is a sign that the conflict will remain intractable. Provision of sophisticated armoury, support for partisan warfare and rallying NATO states to take on Russia economically is indicative of a flawed approach. There is no doubt that Russia’s invasion and attempted annexation through referendums in Donetsk and Luhansk regions are condemnable, but the inability to come up with constructive solutions to end the conflict continues to haunt prospects for peace. The Biden administration, unlike the leaderships of Turkey, Senegal and Qatar, has not once called for peace and dialogue and believes that an economically strangulated Russia would eventually cave into Western demands without security assurances; these are nothing, but mere fallacies. The Ukraine war is prolonging and is contributing to a grave food security crisis amid great climate change challenges such as droughts in the Horn of Africa and extreme flooding in Pakistan.

This crisis of international leadership has dented America’s credibility and is a sharp detraction from historical perceptions of mature albeit short-lived leadership. The world order is now defined by widespread populism, unilateralism, lack of policy planning and greater insecurity on the political, military and economic fronts. Confidence in multilateral institutions is wavering in societies across the world as there is greater scepticism over the ability of international institutions to address issues of immense significance for the global community. The US can no longer consider itself to be the champion of rules-based order as its declining clout is evidence of its shortcomings.

The writer is an Assistant Research Associate at the Islamabad Policy Research Institute