Raoof Hasan

A whiff of fresh air?

The PTI-PML-Q victory in the Punjab Assembly, enabling the coalition to retain its power in the largest province of the country, could signify much more than mere numbers would suggest. This could be a major factor in shaping developments in the future including, but not limited to, whether elections would be held anytime soon.

After Imran Khan’s decision to dissolve the Punjab and KP assemblies to press for the holding of early elections, and members of the federal concoction somersaulting from first daring the PTI to do so to taking recourse to all possible means and methods to thwart the move, retention of power in the province had assumed critical importance. Now that this stage has been successfully managed, the battle once again moves to the chess board with a variety of permutations that could be pursued by Khan to stamp his authority in the political domain.

But, first, the vote itself. Till recently, not many people believed that Khan would be able to pull this through, and they had substantive reasons to back the contention. Although the process of toppling incumbent governments has become relatively more difficult after the Supreme Court (SC) adjudication regarding not counting the votes of such members which are cast in violation of the parliamentary party leader’s directions, yet, given the resources that are at their disposal, not many believed that this would not be accomplished. They thought that the PTI government in Punjab would soon be history.

Despite reluctance from the PML-Q camp to go for the vote of confidence, Khan not only insisted on it, but managed to secure the numbers to establish parliamentary legitimacy for the coalition and pave the way for contemplating interesting moves that he could now make to exert further pressure on the federal government and its sponsors.

The confidence vote can potentially signify a paradigm shift in the way one has been used to looking at political developments in the past. Governments have been formed and dismantled at the whims of the masters without the least effort. Power and pelf have together constituted the lethal weapon which has been often used to do the dirty work. Pundits believed that the efficacy of the weapon has not decreased in any respect and, faced with the growing pressure from the forces together with the dirty (audio and video) tricks which have assumed greater level of significance in the recent past, toppling Punjab government would not be a difficult undertaking. The fact that they were not able to do so could signify a major change is likely to impact the national political paradigm. This relates to the conduct of the legislators under relentless watch and pressure from their constituents which, in turn, is owed to the grassroots awareness that Khan has generated through his tireless efforts spread over years now. If this could become a permanent feature of Pakistani politics, it would be like a whiff of fresh air which would impact the entire political spectrum in the future much to the angst of those who had this as their favourite playing turf to continue asserting their dominance. Their opposition to the adoption of the Electronic Voting Machines (EVMs) was a desperate effort to keep the mechanisms of rigging intact.

In a recent public opinion poll conducted by IRIS, some interesting features have been highlighted. 79 per cent people (against 14 per cent) believe that the country is headed in the wrong direction. Khan remains, by far, the most popular leader at 56 per cent, followed by Nawaz Sharif at 19 per cent, Bilawal at 2 per cent and Shehbaz Sharif at 0 per cent. Though 71 per cent support holding of early elections, as good as 41 per cent contend that the decision to dissolve the provincial assemblies without securing a date for the next elections was wrong while 50 per cent support the move – a rather close contest. 57 per cent people expect Khan to formulate effective policies to control inflation with substantial numbers supporting accountability process, provision of justice at grassroots level with focus on public interest.

Notwithstanding the findings of the opinion poll, with over six months remaining for the next elections and the country tottering on the brink of default, the advice has already been sent by Chaudhry Parvez Elahi, Chief Minister Punjab, to the Governor to dissolve the provincial assembly. If he does not act within forty-eight hours, the assembly shall stand dissolved automatically, paving the way for holding fresh elections in the province within ninety days. A similar advice for the dissolution of KP Assembly is likely to be sent to the Governor of the province by the Chief Minister. In essence, that means that elections to the provincial legislatures would be held in more than sixty percent of the country in the next ninety days. This is in keeping with Imran Khan’s resolve that the provincial legislatures would be dissolved, thus mounting additional pressure on the federal government to hold early elections. With PTI legislators already having resigned from the National Assembly, and the Punjab and KP assemblies gone, it does not leave even a shred of rationale for the federal concoction to continue operating, pretending that nothing really has happened?

The government that was pieced together in the aftermath of the removal of the democratic and constitutional government of Imran Khan on account of a foreign-inspired and locally facilitated conspiracy could never win legitimacy that is vital for running the affairs of the state. The past eight months can easily be construed as the worst period in the history of the country when a government has operated without people’s mandate with a performance that has brought it to the verge of default. Pakistan and its people continue to suffer the consequences of this twin disaster.

Now that Pakistan is entering a new phase with elections likely to be held in more than half of the country, even the entire country, one hopes that the process would be conducted in a free, fair and transparent manner so that people could taste the fruits of genuine and accountable democracy.

One also hopes that the whiff of fresh air lingers, bringing good tidings for Pakistan.

The writer is a political and security strategist and founder of Regional Peace Institute.