Global economic consequences of Russia-Ukraine war will be felt for years to come

Former Finnish Prime Minister Alexander Stubb stated during a panel discussion at the Globe Economic Forum on Monday that the Ukraine conflict will have a long-term impact on the economy of Europe and the rest of the world.

Stubb predicted that the Russian invasion of Ukraine would have a negative impact on the world economy, particularly in terms of inflation, oil costs, and food security.

While Vladimir Putin stays in power in Russia, Stubb believes there will be no return of balance between Moscow and Europe, and it will be difficult for either the Russians or the Ukrainians to define a triumph in the conflict.

“Zelensky can’t give up, and it’s much easier to defend your country and your identity than to attack,” he said. “The Russian military is surprisingly weak, and it’s difficult for Putin to define a victory,” he added.

“I think it has to be a territorial definition; for Putin, it’s only Donetsk, perhaps a little bit more, including Crimea.

“Whereas for Zelensky, he could never approve that. I don’t have an answer for when this is going to end.”

Stubb also feels that Putin’s ambition to establish himself as a great leader in Russian history is driving the conflict.

Stubb’s co-panelist, Karin von Hippel, director-general of the Royal United Services Institute, said more distinction was required between Putin and the Russian people, referring to the invasion of Ukraine as “Putin’s war.”

“It’s difficult to tell if he understands the truth about what’s actually going on in Ukraine; we don’t know how far he’s ready to go,” she added.

She stated that under Putin’s leadership, Russia will not renounce the concept that Ukraine should be included in Russia.

“No Western country can shake hands with him after this. Some may, but a large part can’t,” she added.

Von Hippel said that while she believed in global governance and was a supporter of the UN project, she felt “deeply disappointed” by its response to the Ukraine conflict, saying it had “failed” in its duty.

Samir Saran, president of the Observer Research Foundation, said he believed the developing world — in Asia, Africa, and Latin America — should not be paying for what he called a war of European making.

“When will the world start blaming the West for this inflation?” he asked, before concluding the moment would come sooner than European leaders think.

Saran also said that if a reported disconnect between Putin and the Russian people were to disappear and they were to fully support the conflict, the consequences would be felt by the global economy for at least another decade.

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