Pakistan weather update for January-March

In the first three months of 2024, Pakistan is expected to have near-normal rainfall and higher temperatures. The start might be drier, but it’s likely to get wetter towards the end. The weather outlook is influenced by the positive phase of El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and a shift in the positive phase of the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) to a neutral state.

Expect average rainfall in the upper half of the country, including Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, northern Balochistan, upper Punjab, and Kashmir, especially towards the end of the season. Temperatures will be above normal, with the greatest increase in upper Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Gilgit-Baltistan, Northern Punjab, and parts of Kashmir.

Impacts include a drier start and a wetter end to the season, providing decent soil moisture for early Rabi crop growth. Thick fog in plain areas is likely, reducing towards the end of the season. The irrigation and power sectors should plan water use wisely. Hailstorms might occur, and prolonged dry spells could lead to seasonal illnesses.