China has proposed export controls on 12 technologies used to make solar equipment, citing national security. The move is part of a broader revision of its export-control list that also covers artificial intelligence and biotechnology.
The Ministry of Commerce said Friday that it wants to add the photovoltaic technologies to the export-control list. It said greater oversight is needed because solar technologies are increasingly used in sensitive areas such as aerospace and national defense.
The Associated Press reported that the draft, published jointly with the Ministry of Science and Technology, covers 40 technologies in total, spanning AI, chips and solar power.
Export restrictions aim to "guard against the risks of technologies from running out of control or being improperly disseminated, while safeguarding normal international exchanges and cooperation in science and technology," the ministry said.
Exporters must now register certain overseas technology transfers until the export-control catalogue is formally updated. Public consultation on the proposal closes Nov. 15.
China would ban technologies including those used to make some thin wafers, perovskite and tandem solar cells, and large-scale fluidized-bed polysilicon production.
Perovskite is an emerging technology that offers the potential of higher conversion efficiency. Tandem cells combine perovskite and silicon layers to capture more of the sunlight spectrum. Fluidized-bed technology for producing polysilicon is less expensive and more energy-efficient than the dominant Siemens process.
China would also restrict, but not prohibit, exports of advanced cell manufacturing technologies, including TOPCon, HJT and XBC.
Chinese officials held initial talks with manufacturers about curbs on advanced solar manufacturing technologies, Reuters reported in April. Such curbs could threaten plans by U.S. firms such as Tesla to expand production in the U.S. Reuters has also reported that Beijing has curbed exports of solar-manufacturing technology to India.
What the rules cover
According to pv magazine, technologies below the specified thresholds, and finished products made with controlled technologies, fall outside the proposed scope. The measure targets production know-how and equipment, not modules.
Pakistan's import dependence
Pakistan is one of the largest buyers of Chinese solar panels. Ember's Global Electricity Review 2025 found Pakistan imported 17 gigawatts of panels in 2024, double the 2023 volume.
Ember data show Pakistan's imports of China-made solar components rose from about 3,500 megawatts in 2022 to a record 16,600 megawatts in 2024. Pakistan was the second-largest importer of Chinese panels in 2025, with about 16.86 gigawatts, according to Ember. Pakistan accounted for about 12 percent of China's solar exports in 2025, up from 2 percent in 2022.
Renewables First's 16.6 gigawatts figure for 2024 implies China supplies nearly all of the total. Taken together, the sources suggest roughly three-quarters to nearly all of Pakistan's panels originate in or ship from China.
How the boom is going
Solar generated an average of 25.3 percent of Pakistan's utility electricity in the first four months of 2025, against about 8 percent globally, according to Ember.
Renewables First data cited by Pakistani officials show cumulative imports from China reached about 51.5 gigawatts by November 2025.
Official data cover only net-metered capacity, 6.8 gigawatts as of September 2025. Renewables First estimates total installed capacity at 27 to 33 gigawatts.
The pace is now slowing. according to reports, that panel imports from January to May 2026 were 4,574 megawatts, down 61 percent from 11,781 megawatts a year earlier.
The dollar value fell 54 percent, to $514 million. The same analysis said battery imports are rising. In May, customs authorities also raised assessed values for imported panels ahead of the 2026-27 budget.
Criticism from the power sector
Distribution companies and officials say solar is eroding grid sales while fixed costs remain. At a Nepra hearing, distribution companies blamed solarization for falling sales as they sought a Rs33.78 billion quarterly adjustment, most of it capacity charges.
The Energy Ministry told the IMF that solar adoption has reduced demand and increased idle capacity payments. The government has replaced net metering with net billing. The power minister said on-grid solar is about 7,000 megawatts and off-grid more than 13,000 megawatts.
Critics say solar is being blamed for structural problems. The Sustainable Development Policy Institute noted that capacity payments exceeded Rs1.77 trillion in fiscal 2025 under take-or-pay contracts. It said the payments are spread over fewer units when demand falls.
Analysis: slowdown or local boost?
Near-term supply looks safe. The proposal targets manufacturing technology, and finished modules are outside its stated scope. Pakistan's own slowdown has domestic causes: net billing, customs valuations and market saturation.
The longer-term effect is on Pakistan's localization plans, and it is harder to call. The Pakistan Solar Association has said there is no large-scale, high-efficiency panel manufacturing facility in Pakistan. SDPI has proposed localization through special economic zones and joint ventures with Chinese manufacturers under CPEC.
A Chinese-backed "E-Cluster" initiative uses a phased approach that starts with completely-knocked-down assembly. Those plans depend on Chinese technology transfer, which licensing could slow, especially for cells, wafers and polysilicon. Assembly of mature module technology is less likely to be affected, but that is an inference, not something the sources state.
The curbs could therefore delay deeper local production, though they don't threaten imports directly. Waqas Moosa of the Pakistan Solar Association has argued Pakistan should target niche small modules rather than compete head-on with Chinese giants.
