What is the future of Afghanistan after the resurgence of the Taliban?
Afghanistan is in dire straits at the moment and its security forces have been weakened after the state failed to stop the Taliban’s attacks.
Adding to Afghanistan’s woes, Washington has announced plans to evacuate its citizens from Kabul, a symbol of the US presence after nearly two decades of conflict.
Following the Taliban’s takeover of the vast majority of Afghanistan’s cities and rural areas and the large-scale defeat of Afghan security forces, here are some questions and their answers that may help explain the current situation.
What is the Taliban’s strategy?
The Taliban have never backed down from saying what they want – a complete restoration of their Islamic Emirate, which ruled from 1996 to 2001.
Much of the analysis and reflection was devoted to how they would achieve their goal through dialogue, the use of force, or a combination of the two.
Eventually, his military strategy proved to be enough, he began to subdue government forces with multi-pronged attacks on targets across Afghanistan.
To do so, the United States must first leave the field, signing an agreement with war-torn Washington and pledging that it would not hit US targets in exchange for withdrawal.
As part of the agreement, Washington pressured the Afghan government to release thousands of Taliban prisoners, most of whom immediately joined the fight.
After the success of the last 8 days, the Taliban can now be confident that they can offer the government any unconditional surrender.
If Kabul refuses, it is likely that the Taliban will move towards the Afghan capital with force.
What happened to the Afghan army?
There is no doubt that books on the subject will be published and lectures will be given for many years, if not decades, but what really went wrong with the Afghan security forces? Corruption, a lack of will to fight, and the vacuum created by the US withdrawal may have contributed to the demise of the Afghan army.
For many years, the US government has been issuing reports detailing widespread corruption in the Afghan security forces.
The commanders routinely paid for their troops, sold weapons on the black market, and lied about the number of troops in their ranks.
Afghan forces relied entirely on US airpower, from their equipment to maintenance and airstrikes.
To make matters worse, the security forces have never had effective leadership.
They were briefly organized by citizens in the presidential palace who had some military experience or were overlooked by elderly generals who seemed more involved in minor political battles rather than major battles.
US-trained commando units were the hope of the Afghan security forces, but in the end, they were not enough to deal with the clashes.
How will it end?
In the current situation, the Taliban currently dominate Afghanistan.
The government now controls only three major cities and is unlikely to have the logistical manpower to successfully defend the capital.
The Taliban are advancing rapidly towards Kabul, and their fighters are reported to be advancing north and south of the capital.
The United States and the international community may be pressuring the Taliban and the Afghan government to reach some kind of agreement, but ultimately everything is in the hands of the Taliban.
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